Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Lebowski Rankings - FINAL 2007

As always, these are objective rankings based solely on wins and losses, with strength of schedule and head-to-head competition the only tiebreakers. This list does not depict who is the "best" team, only which teams have done the "best" at winning every game on their schedule. Number in parentheses is strength of schedule according to Colley Ratings. There were a ton of head to head ties, so I'll explain those one by one below the fold (* indicates a head to head win, # indicates a complicated circle of teams, @ indicates a split of 2 games, and more info is below). This is the whole list.

120. Idaho 1-11 (106)
119. Southern Methodist 1-11 (98)
118. Florida International 1-11 (69)
117. Minnesota 1-11 (37)
116. Duke 1-11 (25)
115. Northern Illinois 2-10 (120)
114. North Texas 2-10 (94)
113. Utah State 2-10 (87)
112. Alabama-Birmingham 2-10 (79)
111. Nevada-Las Vegas 2-10 (56)
110. Syracuse 2-10 (26)
109. Rice 3-9 (119)
108. Louisiana-Lafayette 3-9 (91)
107. Marshall 3-9 (72)
106. Army 3-9 (71)
105. Colorado State 3-9 (62)
104. Baylor 3-9 (52)
103. Iowa State 3-9 (31)
102. Kent State 3-9 (100)*
101. Notre Dame 3-9 (14)
100. Mississippi 3-9 (6)
99. New Mexico State 4-9 (116)
98. Washington 4-9 (3)
97. Texas-El Paso 4-8 (109)
96. Tulane 4-8 (112)*
95. Eastern Michigan 4-8 (108)
94. Akron 4-8 (93)
93. Temple 4-8 (115)*
92. San Diego State 4-8 (57)
91. North Carolina 4-8 (33)
90. Stanford 4-8 (20)
89. Toledo 5-7 (114)
88. Buffalo 5-7 (113)
87. San Jose State 5-7 (107)
86. Arkansas State 5-7 (103)
85. Western Michigan 5-7 (101)
84. Louisiana Tech 5-7 (96)
83. Middle Tennessee State 5-7 (89)
82. Wyoming 5-7 (65)
81. Miami (FL) 5-7 (53)
80. Kansas State 5-7 (48)
79. Pittsburgh 5-7 (35)
78. Washington State 5-7 (34)
77. Arizona 5-7 (17)
76. North Carolina State 5-7 (15)
75. Vanderbilt 5-7 (11)
74. Nebraska 5-7 (9)
73. Nevada 6-7 (118)
72. Miami (OH) 6-7 (110)
71. Colorado 6-7 (28)
70. Maryland 6-7 (13)
69. UCLA 6-7 (2)
68. Ohio 6-6 (123)
67. Louisiana-Monroe 6-6 (92)
66. Northwestern 6-6 (84)
65. Iowa 6-6 (86)*
64. Louisville 6-6 (38)
63. South Carolina 6-6 (4)
62. Southern Mississippi 7-6 (111)
61. Memphis 7-6 (125)*
60. Ball State 7-6 (95)
59. Indiana 7-6 (75)
58. Georgia Tech 7-6 (55)
57. Michigan State 7-6 (44)
56. Oklahoma State 7-6 (24)
55. Texas A&M 7-6 (21)
54. California 7-6 (19)
53. Alabama 7-6 (16)
52. Florida State 7-6 (22)*
51. Central Michigan 8-6 (102)
50. Western Kentucky 7-5 (126)
49. Houston 8-5 (122)
48. Bowling Green 8-5 (117)
47. Navy 8-5 (105)
46. Florida Atlantic 8-5 (90)
45. Texas Christian 8-5 (80)
44. Purdue 8-5 (76)
43. East Carolina 8-5 (74)
42. Rutgers 8-5 (61)
41. Arkansas 8-5 (42)#
40. Mississippi State 8-5 (30)#
39. Kentucky 8-5 (5)#
38. Troy 8-4 (81)
37. Fresno State 9-4 (104)
36. New Mexico 9-4 (97)#
35. Air Force 9-4 (83)#
34. Utah 9-4 (68)#
33. Florida 9-4 (1)
32. Connecticut 9-4 (67)#
31. Wisconsin 9-4 (64)#
30. Penn State 9-4 (59)#
29. Illinois 9-4 (50)#
28. Wake Forest 9-4 (49)#
27. Virginia 9-4 (58)*
26. Texas Tech 9-4 (78)*
25. Clemson 9-4 (40)#
24. Michigan 9-4 (39)#
23. South Florida 9-4 (23)#
22. Auburn 9-4 (18)#
21. Oregon 9-4 (10)
20. Oregon State 9-4 (27)*
19. Tulsa 10-4 (99)
18. Central Florida 10-4 (88)
17. Tennessee 10-4 (7)
16. Boise State 10-3 (121)
15. Cincinnati 10-3 (66)
14. Arizona State 10-3 (32)
13. Texas 10-3 (54)*
12. Oklahoma 11-3 (45)
11. Boston College 11-3 (40)@
10. Virginia Tech 11-3 (29)@
9. Brigham Young 11-2 (70)
8. Ohio State 11-2 (60)
7. Southern California 11-2 (51)
6. West Virginia 11-2 (43)
5. Georgia 11-2 (12)
4. Missouri 12-2 (46)
3. Louisiana State 12-2 (8)
2. Hawaii 12-1 (123)
1. Kansas 12-1 (77)

Explanations:

Asterisks indicate a head-to-head win by a team with an identical record, but a lower strength of schedule. The winning head-to-head team is placed immediately above the losing head-to-head team. Examples: Kent State over Iowa State, Tulane over UTEP, Temple over Akron, Iowa over Northwestern, Memphis over Southern Miss, FSU over Alabama, Virginia over Wake Forest, Texas Tech over Virginia, Oregon State over Oregon and Texas over Arizona State.

The ampersands next to Boston College and Virginia Tech refer to the fact that the two teams played twice and each won once. Because of that, I've reverted to strength of schedule.

Number signs indicate a scenario where 3 or more teams have beaten another team with an identical record, but also lost to another team with an identical record, creating a circle. When this happens, we'll revert to the strength of schedule as the tiebreaker, but wins and losses by teams outside such circles will still apply. There are 4 such examples this year and I'll explain them each.

(A) Three SEC teams finished at 8-5. Kentucky beat Arkansas but lost to Mississippi State. Arkansas beat Mississippi State but lost to Kentucky. Mississippi State beat Kentucky but lost to Arkansas. Perfect Circle, revert to strength of schedule.

(B) Three WAC teams finished at 9-4. Utah beat New Mexico but lost to Air Force. Air Force beat Utah but lost to New Mexico. New Mexico beat Air Force but lost to Utah. Perfect Circle, revert to strength of schedule.

(C) Four Big Ten teams finished at 9-4. Michigan beat Illinois and Penn State, but lost to Wisconsin. Illinois beat Wisconsin and Penn State, but lost to Michigan. Wisconsin beat Michigan, but lost to Illinois and Penn State. Penn State beat Wisconsin, but lost to Michigan and Illinois. Not exactly a perfect circle, but reverting to strength of schedule leaves us with an equitable result. The two teams that finished 2-1 in this circle placed higher than the 2 teams that finished 1-2. Among the 2-1 teams, Michigan beat Illinois head-to-head, so by SOS and head-to-head, Michigan is ranked higher. Among the 1-2 teams, Penn State beat Wisconsin head-to-head, so by SOS and head-to-head, Penn State is ranked higher.

(D) All of the teams in the 9-4 category proved to be quite complicated. Every single team that finished 9-4 beat, lost to or both beat and lost to another 9-4 team. This created a massive circle for 5 of the teams, and affected how all of the teams were placed. Auburn beat Clemson, who in turn beat Wake Forest, who in turn beat Connecticut, who in turn beat South Florida, who in turn beat Auburn. Connected thereto... Virginia also beat Wake Forest and Connecticut (but lost to Texas Tech). And Auburn beat Florida (who also lost to Michigan, who also lost to Oregon (who also beat Fresno State but also lost to Oregon State). The decision I made was to separate the "closed circles" from one another, ignore head-to-head wins within closed circles, but then apply head-to-head wins outside those circles. The result is thus:

Oregon is placed first because they had the (second) best SOS, but Oregon State was placed ahead of them because of the head-to-head win. No 9-4 team beat Oregon State, and no 9-4 team other than Oregon State beat Oregon. Next, I follow SOS to include the 5 team circle, but I place the Big Ten teams from the 4 team circle in their appropriate slot based on SOS (since none of the Big Ten teams lost or beat any of the teams within the 5 team circle). Auburn, followed by South Florida (despite the head-to-head win), followed by Michigan because of SOS. I have not slotted Florida yet, despite their excellent SOS, because they lost to both Auburn and Michigan and didn't beat anyone with a 9-4 record (a fact they only share with Fresno State). Michigan is followed by Clemson, who is then followed by Texas Tech and Virginia before Wake Forest. Virginia didn't lose to anyone in that 5 team circle, but did beat Wake Forest (and UConn, but Wake is slotted higher based on SOS). Therefore we'll slide the Texas Tech and Virginia head-to-head wins in ahead of Wake, but behind the other teams in the circle with a higher SOS. After Wake Forest, we'll slot the three other Big Ten schools, based on their SOS ranking. Then Connecticut finishes up the 5 team circle. Here's where we slot Florida. Logically, we couldn't slot Florida any higher than this, because every team above Florida would have beaten another team at 9-4. They can't be ahead of Michigan or Auburn because they lost to both. And every other team ahead of them beat either Auburn or Michigan or beat a team that beat Auburn or Michigan (by some stretch). Florida didn't beat any of those teams. We can rank Florida ahead of Utah, Air Force, New Mexico and Fresno State because none of those teams beat Florida or any team with a link to a team that beat Florida.

Make sense?

1 comments:

The General said...

Colley's SOS rankings have 6 SEC teams in the top-8, 8 in the top-12, 10 in the top-18, and none lower than 42. Sick.