Saturday, March 19, 2005

RPI Project Update

Underrated Teams:
Vermont: won
Old Dominion: kept close
Ohio: kept close
UL-Lafayette: kept close
S. Illinois: won
St. Mary's: lost to other underrated team
UTEP: kept close
Utah State: kept close
Pacific: won
Penn: lost
Wisconsin: won
Kansas: lost to underrated team
UCLA: lost
Bucknell: won
Boston College: won
Pitt: lost to underrated team
Cincinnati: won

Most teams wither won or were in a position to win.

Overrated teams:
Iowa State: won over other overrated team
West Virginia: won
NC State: won over other overrated team
Texas: lost
Charlotte: lost to other overrated team
Minnesota: lost to other overrated team
Iowa: lost
Georgia Tech: won
UAB: won
UConn: won somewhat close
Stanford: lost

In the matchups between an overrated team and an underrated team, the underrated team went 3-1, with only Texas Tech winning over UCLA (Vermont, Pacific and Cincinnati were the underrated winners).

Basically, it looks like the system semi-works. The underrated teams either pulled upsets or kept it close. I think it's reasonable to say that had those teams been seeded higher (where the RPI would have slotted them), they would've been as or more successful (playing lesser opponents). On the overrated side, it's tougher to tell. Had the overrated teams been seeded lower (and therefore playing better opponents), who knows how well they would've performed?

Now in the next round let's look at the matchups:
BC is underrated. UW-Milwaukee is level.
Nevada and Illinois are level
Arizona is level, UAB is overrated.
So. Illinois is slightly more underrated than Ok. St.
Pacific is underrated. Washington is level.
Louisville is slightly underrated. Georgia Tech is overrated.
Gonzaga is slightly underrated. Texas Tech is overrated.
Wake Forest is level. West Virginia is overrated.
UNC is barely overrated. Iowa State is significantly overrated.
Villanova is slightly underrated. Florida is level.
Wisconsin is more underrated than Bucknell.
UConn is less overrated than NC State.
Duke and Miss. State are level.
Vermont is very underrated, Mich. State is slightly overrated.
Utah is less overrated than Oklahoma.
Cincinnati is underrated, Kentucky is slightly overrated.

2 overrated teams: UConn/NC State, Utah/Oklahoma, UNC/Iowa State
2 underrated teams: So. Ill/Ok. State, Wisconsin/Bucknell
Over vs. Under: Louisville/GT, Gonzaga/Texas Tech, Vermont/Mich. State, Cincy/Kentucky

I'll update it again after the next round.