Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Draft Predictor Thingy

More NBA Action It's Fannnntastic! here. Sorry.

Anyway, ESPN has returned with their Chad Ford predictions "Lottery Mock Draft Predictor" thingy, which makes for some good time wastin'. Most interesting to me is how Ford seems to have let us in on who he thinks are on each team's "Big Board", but only if you click the shuffle button like a hundred times, and then it gets a little tougher because not every permutation works out, and you don't really know where every single player is for every single team.

Let's look at the lottery teams, based on the standings as of today (before games). If a player is bracketed, it means I never saw them drafted by that team in a particular spot, but they never were available lower. I clicked the switch like a thousand times. I probably missed something, but time was limited.

Charlotte (25% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 4th):
1) Rudy Gay
2) Adam Morrison
3) LaMarcus Aldridge
4) Tyrus Thomas

Chicago (19.9% chance at First (Knicks pick), cannot pick lower than 5th)
1) LaMarcus Aldridge
2) Andrea Bargnani
After that I can't really figure it out because nobody else has Bargnani that high. They're able to get him as low as 5th. Ford definitely has them wanting Tiago Splitter, then Al Horford with their own first rounder (currently would be 13th unless they're in the top 3)

Portland (15.6% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 6th)
1) Adam Morrison
2) LaMarcus Aldridge
3) Andea Bargnani
4) Tyrus Thomas
5) Rodney Carney
Never saw a scenario where Morrison was off the board and the Blazers picked second. Oddly, I never saw them pick Gay anywhere (he was always off the board or Morrison was available). Gay could be slotted in any of those spots. Those are the only 5 players I saw them select.

Atlanta (11.9% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 7th)
1) LaMarcus Aldridge
2) Tyrus Thomas
3) Andrea Bargnani
4) Rajon Rondo
I never saw the Hawks get Morrison or Gay, so they could be slotted ahead of Bargnani (they were already off the board whenever Bargnani or Rondo was picked, Thomas and Aldridge were always picked ahead)

Toronto (8.8% at First, cannot pick lower than 8th)
1) Morrison
2) Gay
3) Bargnani
4) Thomas
5) Brewer
Never saw the Raptors take Aldridge, but he wouldn't be slotted above Bargnani.

Orlando (6.3% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 9th)
1) Morrison
2/3) Gay/Aldridge (never saw them pick second when Morrison was taken first)
4) Rodney Carney
5) Rajon Rondo
Never saw the Magic take Bargnani or Thomas.

Seattle (4.3% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 10th)
1) Morrison
2) Aldridge
3) Shelden Williams
95% of the time they got Williams.

Boston (2.8% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 11th)
1) Gay
2) Aldridge
3) Brewer
4) Rondo
5) Tiago Splitter

Golden State (1.7% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 12th)
1) Aldridge
2) Carney/Rondo/Shelden Williams (always took the one not already taken)
5) Mardy Collins

Minnesota (1.1% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 13th)
1) Gay
2) Aldridge
[Morrison/Bargnani/Thomas/ Carney/Williams/Brewer/Rondo]
3) Randy Foye

Houston (0.8% chance at First, cannot pick lower than 14th - one in 100 billion chance at that)
1) Thomas
2) Tiago Splitter
Not much help once we get this low...

Chicago (0.7% chance at first, cannot pick lower than 14th)
See above. Down here it's Splitter ahead of Al Horford, ahead of Mardy Collins.

Sacramento (0.6% chance at first, cannot pick lower than 14th)
1) Aldridge
2) Bargnani
[Thomas/Gay/Morrison/Thomas/ Carney/Williams/Brewer/Rondo/Splitter]
3/4) Al Horford/Randy Foye
5) Brandon Roy

Utah (0.5% chance at first, either the top 3 or 14th)
1) Morrison
Never saw them pick anywhere else but 14th, and always picked JJ Redick.

Take all this as you will. I have no idea why I spent any time on this.