Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Destiny is Rolling

Just past the halfway spot in college football, and I thought it might be interesting to see where each conference is in terms of teams controlling their own destiny en route to a conference title.

Controlling one's own destiny means that if you win the remainder of your games, you'll win your conference/division. The results of any other game do not matter. You win, you're in.

The listed teams control their own destiny, short analysis follows.

ACC Atlantic: BC

ACC Coastal: Virginia and Virginia Tech

A loss Thursday by BC gives Clemson control of their destiny, and also opens the door for a 3-way tie with Wake, BC and Maryland. A single loss by whichever team ends up winning the UVA-VT game opens the door for Miami (and in the farthest reaches of possibilities, UNC).

Big XII North: Kansas and Missouri

Big XII South: Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

KSU and Colorado need Kansas to lose 3 times, or twice and have there be a host of weird tiebreakers. The South is one of the most interesting races - two teams control their own destiny. Oklahoma State would control its own destiny with a single loss by A&M. Texas and Texas Tech are still alive, needing just a single loss by another team for possible 3-way ties to come into play.

Big East: UConn, Rutgers

WVU controls its destiny with another USF loss. USF controls its destiny with another Rutgers loss.

Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State

Wisconsin can join a 3-way tie if they win out and the eventual winner of Michigan-Ohio State loses before then. Penn State could even make that a 4 way tie at 6-2 with a win this weekend.

C-USA East: Southern Mississippi, UAB

C-USA West: Houston, UTEP

The east is interesting. Tough back end of the schedule for UAB is the real reason they're listed here, but if they win out they're in the title game. ECU controls their destiny with one more USM loss. UCF controls their destiny with one more ECU loss. West could be decided this weekend.

MAC East: Akron, Buffalo, Miami (OH)

MAC West: Central Michigan

4 teams with a single loss in the East. BGSU controls their destiny with another Miami loss. Temple could even join a few tiebreaker scenarios. Central Michigan could clinch the division by Nov. 3.


Utah controls their destiny with another BYU loss. New Mexico and Air Force need BYU to lose twice and there to be weird tiebreakers - namely with Wyoming involved.

Pac-10: Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA, USC

Some things might get clarified this weekend with big games looming. Cal needs UCLA to lose twice (and Oregon State to lose again) and they could eventually control their own destiny.

Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic, Troy

Armageddon in South Florida on December 1 when the Owls and Trojans meet up for the Sub Belt Title game. (Though MTSU still has a slim chance)

SEC East: Florida, South Carolina

SEC West: Alabama, LSU

If Alabama beats LSU, Auburn can cause a 3-way tie by beating Alabama. You already know how messy the East is (and how messier it could even get).

WAC: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii

Fresno State hasn't been talked about much but right in it.

So that's the current posture. 33 teams control their own destinies towards a conference or division title. Dozens more are right in it with just a single bounce one way or another. 6 weeks to go and I'm sure a lot will change. In fact, I'd bet at least a handful of conferences or divisions end up with winners who this far into the season did not control their own destiny.