Pepsi Challenge: Mediocre-ish Teams Edition

Which team is better?

Team A:

5-2

1 win vs 1-AA/FCS opponent

Unbeaten in own conference

438 yards per game (20th nationally)

34 points per game (25th)

338 yards allowed per game (49th)

22 points allowed per game (49th)

113th toughest schedule according to Colley Ratings

97th toughest schedule according to GBE

Both losses to top-15 teams (one team is 7-1, the other is 7-2, both from major conferences, both on the road).

No wins over ranked opponents.

Team B:

5-2

1 win vs. 1-AA/FCS opponent.

Unbeaten in own conference

357 yards per game (69th)

24 points per game (71st)

312 yards allowed per game (34th)

15 points allowed per game (11th)

112th toughest schedule according to Colley Ratings

110th toughest schedule according to GBE

Both losses to teams at or near .500 (one is 4-4, the other 4-3, one from a major conference, the other a mid-major, both on the road)

No wins over ranked opponents

One team scores a lot more, the other allows a lot fewer points.  Neither team has played a decent schedule.  Neither team has proven that they can beat a good opponent, but one of these teams at least has only lost to very good teams.

Neither team is in line for the national title or anything, so this is more of an academic exercise than one that will determine anything all that important.

But Team B is currently 26th in both the AP and Coaches' Polls.  Team A barely gets a whiff of votes in either poll (no votes in the Coaches' poll, 1/13th the number of votes in the AP poll that Team B got).  And I've seen a few bloggers giving blogpoll votes to Team B.  

We're at the point in the season where what people think will happen ought to be eclipsed by the evidence of what has happened.  The evidence doesn't show any real difference between these two teams.

So why is it that people give the benefit of doubt to West Virginia (Team B) but don't give the same deference to Troy (Team A)?

Just askin'.

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Pepsi Challenge: High Powered Offense Edition

Which team is better?

Team A:

7-0

2 wins vs. 1-AA/FBS opponents

45.9 points per game on offense (5th)

557 yards per game on offense (2nd)

21.1 points allowed per game on defense (43rd)

24.8 scoring margin

126th toughest schedule according to Colley Rankings

116th toughest schedule according to GBE

Against toughest opponent: home vs. 4-3 team, in overtime, by 6 points

Team B:

7-0

1 win vs. 1-AA/FBS opponent

56.6 points per game on offense (1st)

624 yards per game on offense (1st)

27.1 points allowed per game on defense (80th)

29.5 scoring margin

129th toughest schedule according to Colley Rankings.

120th toughest schedule according to GBE

Against toughest opponent: home vs. 4-3 team, by 35 points

Both teams have played against atrocious schedules.  One has played slightly worse opponents, but the other has played 2 lower division opponents.  Neither has played a ranked opponent.

One has a higher powered offense, while the other has a slightly better defense.  Both teams have one close win (6 points), but all of their other games were blowouts.

So...

Any idea why one team is ranked in the top 6 in the coaches' poll, while the other barely cracks the top 25?  Any idea why one team got 4 times as many points in the AP poll as the other?

What is it about Texas Tech (Team A) that is that much more impressive than Tulsa (Team B)?

Just askin'.

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The Coaches' Poll in a Nutshell

Results Here.

Here's the nutshell:

1)  You shouldn't pay any attention to how we vote from week to week, because we'll elevate whoever we want based on rules never enunciated and for whatever reason we decide this year is important.

2)  There are eleven of us voters so corrupt (biased or personally benefiting) as to place a team ranked 7th last week #1 his week after requiring a pick six in the last few minutes to eke out a win over an underdog.

3)  There are two of us voters so corrupt (biased or personally benefiting) as to place a team ranked 8th last week  at #1 this week.

4)  We have completely forgotten about Kansas.

This system is irretrievably broken.  I can't wait to see the USA Today grid to see all of the conflicts of interest in all their glory.  And if you want to rely on the Harris Poll, go through my archives back in fall of 2005 to see how corrupt and conflicted those voters are.

And congratulations, Les Miles.  You've just sealed your fate in Baton Rouge next year.  Whatever the point spread, it does not matter.  Georgia will absolutely annihilate LSU next year.  Put the money in the effing bank,

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Why do we have polls anyway?

Polls are supposed to provide an objective analysis where subjectivity is insufficient (or at least that's what people tell me).

Here's the thing.  Two ATROCIOUS phantom holding calls effectively removed 6 points from Pittsburgh's score tally and gave the ball back to West Virginia undeservedly. (and another excessive celebration penalty that was ridiculous).  The already-been-proven by plenty of examples incompetent and possibly corrupt Big East officials tried their damnedest to give the game to WVU.

Pollsters can use their "objectivity" to discount entirely WVU's win (if they come back). If a win is undeserved, vote as if they didn't.

Just sayin'.

UPDATE: Never mind.  Karma.

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Just in case you were wondering...

Ryan Hockensmith, Mixed Martial Arts writer for ESPN.com, has produced another Power 16 poll that is hilariously messed up.

• Again he gives Kansas its lone #1 vote.
• Now he moves Hawaii (after squeaking by weak Nevada) and Boise State up in the rankings. Now both are in his Top 8.

In comparison to the other voters in this poll, Hockensmith...

• Ranks Hawaii 5 full slots higher than anyone else(and 3 don't even rank Hawaii).
• Ranks Boise State 6 full slots higher than anyone else (and only 3 others DO rank Boise State).
• Ranks Georgia 4 slots lower than anyone else.

It wouldn't surprise me if he ranked the winner of Hawaii-Boise State #1 if Kansas loses to Missouri. And it also wouldn't surprise me if he'd never heard of the term "strength of schedule".

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Let's talk about Kansas

Over the last few weeks I've ranted and raved about various polling things. Yes, I complained about UConn and what I perceived as what should be subjective polling using the easy way out. UConn got whipped by Cincinnati last week. So now I have to find a new target. Let's talk about Kansas.

The Kansas Jayhawks are 10-0 and ranked third in the nation in the BCS, 4th in the AP Poll.

The primary strength of Kansas and reason for its lofty ranking is the zero in the loss column. I say this because it cannot be their accomplishments against quality opponents or in big games. It is merely the fact that they are unbeaten against one of the worst schedules of any team in a BCS conference:

Colley: 105th toughest schedule (only Texas Tech is worse among BCS conference teams)
GBE: 98th toughest schedule (only USC is worse among BCS conference teams)
Sagarin: 97th toughest schedule (worst among BCS conference teams)
Team Rankings: 117th toughest schedule (worst among BCS conference teams)
CBS Sports: 73rd toughest schedule (only ahead of USC, Texas Tech, and Miami (FL) among BCS conference teams)
NCAA (warning - PDF): 86th toughest schedule (only ahead of Texas Tech, Miami (FL), and USC among BCS conference teams)

Here's my question: What other teams are "undefeated" against the portion of their schedule as bad as Kansas' entire schedule?

We'll find out who Kansas' toughest opponent is so far, and then look at the schedules of other teams and see if anyone else remains unbeaten against opponents as bad as Kansas' toughest (or worse).

So who is Kansas' toughest opponent?

There are 25 teams ranked in the BCS standings. Kansas has played none of them.
There are 34 teams receiving votes in this week's AP poll. Kansas has played none of them.
There are 35 teams receiving votes in this week's USA Today Coaches' Poll. Kansas has played none of them.
There are 36 teams receiving votes in this week's Harris Poll. Kansas has played none of them.

Let's then look at the BCS sanctioned computer polls, as they rank all teams.

According to Sagarin's ELO-CHESS (the one used for the BCS), Kansas' toughest opponent is Oklahoma State, at #47.
According to Anderson & Hester, Kansas' toughest opponent is Oklahoma State, at #42.
According to Billingsley (which has serious flaws in my estimation), Kansas' toughest opponent is Texas A&M, at #37.
According to Colley, Kansas' toughest opponent is Texas A&M, at #48.
According to Massey, Kansas' toughest opponent is Oklahoma State, at #44.
According to Peter Wolfe, Kansas' toughest opponent is Texas A&M, at #40.

So, basically, Kansas hasn't played anyone better than around 40th in the nation so far. If you place any importance on their undefeated record, you are necessarily assuming that they would not lose to teams tougher than they have played already. That might be an assumption you would want to make (it's not nice to assume someone would lose). But here's the rub: if another team has lost to teams better than Kansas, it is a reasonable position to take to say that that team can be better than an unbeaten Kansas team. For example, LSU has lost one game, to a decent/good Kentucky team that, by every rating system available, is far superior to anyone on Kansas' schedule. To say Kansas deserves to be rated higher than LSU because they are unbeaten necessarily requires the assumption that Kansas would beat teams better than they have already played such as Kentucky).

Let's look and see who else hasn't lost to anyone as bad as or worse than Kansas' toughest...

1. Using Sagarin's ELO-CHESS, the following teams have also not lost to anyone worse than or equal to Kansas' best opponent, Oklahoma State (47):

LSU, Oregon, Ohio State, West Virginia, Florida, Arizona State, Missouri, Clemson, Georgia, Virginia Tech, South Florida, Kentucky, Connecticut, Tennessee, Penn State, Boston College, Auburn, Wisconsin, Alabama, Hawaii (though clearly the same test applies), South Carolina, Arkansas, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Troy.

That's 27 teams according to Sagarin's BCS list that haven't lost to anyone worse than the best team on Kansas' schedule. If you rate Kansas highly because they are undefeated, you should also see zeroes on those 27 teams' records.

2. Using Anderson & Hester, the following teams have also not lost to anyone worse than or equal to Kansas' best opponent, Oklahoma State (42):

LSU, Oregon, Arizona State, Missouri, Ohio State, Georgia, West Virginia, Florida, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Tennessee, Connecticut, Penn State, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Auburn, Hawaii, Alabama, Mississippi State, Purdue, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt.

That's 22 teams according to A&H that haven't lost to anyone worse than the best team on Kansas' schedule. If you rate Kansas highly because they are undefeated, you should also see zeroes on those 22 teams' records.

3. Using Billingsley, the following teams have also not lost to anyone worse than or equal to Kansas' best opponent, Texas A&M (37):

LSU, Ohio State, Oregon, West Virginia, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Clemson, Penn State, Connecticut, Hawaii, South Florida and Troy

That's 15 teams according to Billingsley that haven't lost to anyone worse than the best team on Kansas' schedule. If you rate Kansas highly because they are undefeated, you should also see zeroes on those 15 teams' records.

4. Using Colley, the following teams have also not lost to anyone worse than or equal to Kansas' best opponent, Texas A&M (48):

LSU, Oregon, Arizona State, Ohio State, Missouri, West Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Connecticut, South Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Penn State, Hawaii, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Troy, Georgia Tech, Arkansas and Vanderbilt

That's 26 teams according to Colley that haven't lost to anyone worse than the best team on Kansas' schedule. If you rate Kansas highly because they are undefeated, you should also see zeroes on those 26 teams' records.

5. Using Massey, the following teams have also not lost to anyone worse than or equal to Kansas' best opponent, Oklahoma State (44).

LSU, Oregon, Arizona State, Missouri, Ohio State, Georgia, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida, Clemson, Boston College, Tennessee, Kentucky, Connecticut, Wisconsin, South Florida, Penn State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, Hawaii, Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Troy

That's 27 teams according to Massey that haven't lost to anyone worse than the best team on Kansas' schedule. If you rate Kansas highly because they are undefeated, you should also see zeroes on those 27 teams' records.

6. Using Wolfe, the following teams have also not lost to anyone worse than or equal to Kansas' best opponent, Texas A&M (40):

LSU, Oregon, Missouri, Arizona State, Ohio State, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Florida, Clemson, Connecticut, Tennessee, Penn State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.

That's 21 teams according to Wolfe that haven't lost to anyone worse than the best team on Kansas' schedule. If you rate Kansas highly because they are undefeated, you should also see zeroes on those 21 teams' records.

In sum, if you are ranking Kansas highly, you must be placing a lot of emphasis on not losing, without regard to how bad or mediocre the opposition is. And if you are placing a lot of emphasis on not losing to bad or mediocre opposition, there are about two dozen other teams who also haven't lost to bad or mediocre opposition (but several of them have played and beaten good or great opposition).

Perhaps you really do think Kansas would beat significantly better opposition than they've faced so far. Perhaps the next couple of weeks will prove such.

But based on the knowledge we have right now of that team, there are reasonable arguments to place the Jayhawks in a poll in the high teens or worse. And if you use resume ranking, there aren't reasonable arguments to place the Jayhawks in the top 3.

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Mocking a Meaningless List

That's like, 90% of what I do this time of year.

But here you have it.

ESPN's Power 16 Poll.

Ryan Hockensmith, Mixed Martial Arts beat writer for ESPN*, presents a laughably terrible poll.

Kansas, who hasn't beaten a top 40 team all year at #1.
No ACC team in the top 10, just one SEC team in the top 10.
BUT TWO TEAMS FROM THE WAC?

Seriously. Hawaii at #8, and Boise State at #10.

• Two teams from a conference that is, in the aggregate, 0-13 against BCS conference opponents.
• Two teams from a conference that has all of ZERO nonconference win against 1-A/FBS teams with even a winning record. The entire conference's best win? Boise State over 5-5, 4th place in C-USA East Southern Miss.
• Two teams from a conference that leads all conferences with 10 games against 1-AA/FCS opposition.
• Two teams whose best win by either of them is against #58 (according to Colley Rankings) Fresno State - for comparison, Hockensmith's #12 team, Georgia, has played EIGHT teams ranked higher than anyone Hawaii or Boise State has played.
• Two teams with strength of schedule rankings above 125 according to Colley Rankings (and yes, there are only 120 1-A/FBS teams).
• If Colley ain't your thing? Fine... Two teams with strength of schedule rankings above 122 according to Sagarin (and Hawaii's is 157 - That's ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY SEVEN!!!)
• Two teams whose best win by either of them is against #74 (according to Sagarin) Fresno State - again, under Sagarin's rankings Georgia has played 8 teams better than anyone either Hawaii or Boise State has played.

If this guy were in the Blogpoll, his ballot would probably be spiked. Isn't it nice that the Worldwide Leader In Sports trusts his opinion on the sport enough to give him some space? And another thing - this is a power poll, remember. This guy thinks Boise State and Hawaii would beat USC, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Texas, Florida, etc. on a neutral field.

I'm certain this guy isn't indicative of the whimsical, ill-informed poll-creating abilities of most writers and voters who determine champions. 100% positive. Nope. Everyone is sharp as nails.

* Yes, I know he has written on college football before. If I remember correctly, he wrote a bunch of stories related to the Ohio State scandals from a few years ago. But look again at his archive on ESPN.com. No football stories in 3 seasons. His last story on college football was about Alex Smith and Urban Meyer at Utah. Why is he included in their poll?

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