Recapping the predictive abilities of morons talking about football. 20/20 goggles on and ready to go.
Corso:
Hints that Ohio State might lose because the game will end at night. "I say nothing!!!" Old coot.
One loss team with biggest concerns: Oklahoma
Miami can "win 'em all" if they have a snapper and a holder; compares them to 1983 team tha lost opener and won them all. "I say nothing!!!" Weirdo.
TCU could be Utah of 2005
Would start Zwick. "I would not change quarterbacks for quarterback change [unintelligible] trails off... Odd.
Blames QB rotation for Georgia losses. Fowler says Corso's still mad about that. Doesn't he realize that it wasn't the QB rotation, but rather the curse that him wearing the mascot head that caused UGA to lose? Accountability, Lee. Take it.
Iowa is elite, and overrated. We'll find out how good when they play "our" buckeyes.
Michigan hasn't played defense since 1997
Richt, Fulmer and Tuberville are classy.
Shockley is for real. Georgia's D wins for them. UGA wins big.
Admits he was wrong about ND. Calls Pitt "mighty" three times! They're just killing May today (see below).
Vince Young is your game changer.
NSFMotherfucker (even though Kirk hadn't said anything yet): Maryland wins over Clemson.
Picks Iowa close (half credit?)
NSFMF: (again, before Kirk had said anything) Nebraska beats Wake (and why are they talking about that?)
Plays to the crowd on ND-Mich pick.
Herbstreit:
Secretaries in the UT athletic department are infected by Vince Young's confidence.
Oklahoma: needs a passing game, defense had no emotion, heart, desire; no leadership. Bigger concerns than Auburn, Miami, others.
Likes GT.
Zwick should start, Smith should get in early. Herbstreit talks out of both sides of his mouth in saying the opposite, but then agreeing with May. "I just said that" (he said something completely different).
Iowa is elite. Was with marginal athletes, now even better.
Georgia wins close.
Rubs in Pitt sucking to May.
Notre Dame within 2-3 years is back to a power in college football. ABOUT TO BUILD A DYNASTY ("mark it down", he says, and so I do).
Ohio State D is one of the most athletic and agressive in college football.
Chizik is one of the best D coordinators in college football (he broke out the superlative twice in a minute after not saying a thing all day).
Brady Quinn is your game changer.
Admits he was wrong about Clemson - last week's dumbest statement. Good on ye.
Says he'll pick against Washington no matter what, cause they suck.
Upset special - Wake over Nebraska.
Plays to the crowd on ND-Mich pick.
Brings out his kids to make his OSU pick. His kids look like the twins who played Frankenstein in Big Daddy and Ross's kid on Friends.
Fowler:
OSU-UT won't define the season (really? 'cuz it sure seems like the hype suggests that).
OSU-UT isn't armageddon, just fun. (WTF? Dude, it's a big game. Just call it that.)
Nick LaChey is "our resident rock star". Rock star. Yeah. He said it. Dumbest statement of the day.
Iowa might be overrated, not as good as Herbstreit thinks. Trap game for Iowa.
Incidental hilarity or intentional?: when talking to Mark May, Fowler (with a huge shit eating grin) worked in the phrase "take it on the chin". Clearly referring to Mark's facepussy (which I will hear no argument against the fact he grew it to distinguish him from Carlton of the Fresh Prince)
What's that shit about Michigan's AD telling the students to sit down? What a fucking moron.
Chad Greenway is your game changer (whiff).
Says Kirk's kid's heartbeat is pounding while sitting on Fowler's lap. I'm a little creeped out by this scene.
May:
Zwick should start for OSU and shouldn't get a quick hook.
Notre Dame isn't that good because Pitt sucks.
Holtz (vomiting in my mouth):
Maryland lost last year to the "University of Clemson" - intentional? I'd say so, even though normally I'd chalk it up to the oatmeal between his ears.
Howard:
Very loud boos. I like it.
Mouthpieces slow you down. Never heard that before. Interesting, sort of.
Troy Smith should start for OSU.
Agrees with Herbstreit about ND becoming a dynasty.
Lachey:
More boos. Kind of surprising. Probably because he's fair weather.
I honestly think his Hail to the Victors piece was absolutely tongue in cheek.
Howard and Lachey singing Hail to the Victors in the Shoe - probably will cause death threats.
Miscellaneous:
even the Lovely Wife thinks the Bubba Sparxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx song was better. If you've lost Cronkite... And the actual lyrics are "Yeah, this song is... purdy Shit-tay".
The Gillette "Game Face" bit is equally hilarious and tragic. Freaking terrible.
First I've seen the Takeshi "This is Sportscenter" commercial. How does Anderson keep a straight face?
I'm not sure what Gameday thing makes me laugh/pisses me off the most. Options: Game Face, Big&Rich, the bullshit walkthrough bit on the turf (which they thankfully didn't do this week). Maybe one thing that always cracks me up is the footage of the team breakfast. Always comedy. Is there any reason for a camera there? Vince Young uses ketchup on his eggs - a clear advantage for Ohio State! Oh look, Mack Brown burned his toast! He clearly doesn't have his mind in the right place!
And is that Audi commercial where the car drives up a ski jump for real? For skreel?
Selections:
Corso: 18-5, 35-10 on the year
Herbstreit: 19-4, 37-8 on the year.
Recap thoughts:
Holtz is a terrible choice to replace Trev.
The pundits really went overboard in catering to OSU, as they have for the last few weeks.
Cutting the walkthrough segment is a good move.
Only two NSFs, and both of them were premature ejaculations. Nice, now go back to your pudding.
Howard improved a bit this week, but he's still pretty weak.
Sunday, September 11, 2005
Amarkmayican Idol: Who will take over for Trev? That and more with College Gameday Recap
Ohio State - Texas
I only saw the end of it, so I'll focus on one thing. After Zwick's fumble (with 2 minutes to go), if I remember the series correctly, Texas got a quick first down (down to about the 4). My immediate thought was for Ohio State to let Young walk in for a touchdown. Texas was up one, and there's no way Texas goes for 2 after the touchdown. Ohio State needed the ball with the most amount of time left. Give the touchdown up quickly, then use the minute and a half or so to put together a drive to go downfield and tie the game with a touchdown and 2 point conversion. Seems like at that point in the game it was like a high school game in overtime when the team on offense has the lead in penetration. Just give up the score so you get the ball back.
What did happen was exactly the best case scenario for Ohio State after that first down. And they got the ball back on the 1 yard line with about 25 seconds left needing to go about 70 yards for the winning field goal. Had they given up the score immediately, they'd have had a chance to return a kickoff (probably a squib) and go about 75 yards for the tying touchdown, but with just under two minutes and a timeout. Again, this is all from memory, so I might not have the timing exactly right. But I thought of it immediately at the time. Wondering if anyone else thought of this... And by the way, someone this week mentioned (unsure who) that Tressel is the best game day coach in the nation. Hmmm...
Review of UGA-Shitburg State
I thought we'd roll, and we didn't.
As I watched from Section 325, I kept having flashbacks. Not to other USC games, though I'm sure in many minds the "they always play us tough" line of thinking is common. It reminded me first and foremost of the Tennessee game from last year, and then just about every Georgia-Florida game during the Donnan years (except that the relative talent on the teams was about reversed.
Yes, the amorphous idea that "players were told they were so good all week because of last week's blowout and they started to believe their own hype" will get airplay. But I see a connection to the UT game from last year because of the coaching mistakes (or ill-advised strategies, and yes, I have the benefit of hindsight - so this isn't a rant on Richt), the opponent making big plays at the best possible times, while we do not make big plays (or just not often enough), and yes, some suspect officiating (I haven't seen the tape, just how I saw it from my seat).
As to reminding me of late-90s Florida games, the offense really is that familiar. Spurrier is still really good at getting receivers into open seams (and they use picks really well). Mitchell, who might be a little better than I thought but still not great, found the right guy a lot of the time. Their running game sucks, but if it hadn't, then Georgia would've been in trouble.
The overall take: Georgia is the better team. USC still is not that good. Georgia was lucky to win.
A few specific things:
1) Anyone know why Spurrier declined that penalty in order to punt sooner? I know he's been known to punt on 3rd down when he's frustrated with the offense, but they weren't playing terribly. The only thing I could think of was that personnel needed a breather (Mitchell was winded).
2) The talk after the game was about why we blitzed on 3rd and 22. I see the concerns, but I'm not sure it was the wrong thing to do. I just think it wasn't executed. When Georgia got pressure on Mitchell, 9 times out of 10 he made a poor decision or the pass wasn't accurate. On that play the USC line held up and we didn't get the pressure we should have. In hindsight, you don't blitz there because it didn't work. But that's the case with everything. I'm not convinced it wouldn't have worked with the right execution.
3) The coaching mistakes/strategies I wrote of above: basically, not committing to the run 100% until the second half. Running up the middle was open most of the day (USC's defensive guards are not very good). This was pretty plainly evident even in the first quarter. USC's defensive backs are pretty good and defended the pass very well. Of course you need to continue to throw to keep them honest, but I think running the ball a little more would've been better.
4) The playaction on 4th and 1: This might've worked if we hadn't called timeout and given their coaches a chance to remind them to watch for this, but I think it was a bad idea anyway. The General was furious - thought we should've punted - but I think going for it was OK as long as we just lined up and pushed them off the line, which we did all day long.
5) One referee call - that unsportsmanlike penalty for throwing the ball after what looked like a fumble. I thought at worst this should've been a delay of game penalty for 5 yards. It wasn't showing up the other team. All it did was make the referee crew trot a little farther. Laziness penalty. Weak.
So yeah, Georgia could've played better (and USC probably could've too). But Georgia was the better team. And lucky to get out with a win. This game should be reviewed again and again for the Tennessee game, since they'll be as talented in the secondary (though UT should be much better up front).
Friday, September 09, 2005
Premiership Picks
Dear punters,
I know grouchy blue collar dudes from Leeds with plenty of hair in their ears and who smell like cheap smuggled Turkish cigarettes and fried fish have little interest in what a 28 year old Atlantan who actually cares more about college football has to say about their national game (no, not cricket, the one with the overpaid primadonnas). But in this instance you should wise up and pay attention. Put aside the fact that I clearly don't know my elbow from my asshole. Put aside the fact that I could name maybe 3 keepers in the entire premiership. Put aside the fact that I haven't even been able to watch highlights of the premiership this year since Comcast took away FSC. Suspend your belief in critical thinking and reasoned analysis and look at one thing:
Two weeks ago: 6/9 right result. 2 right scorelines.
Season so far: 20/34 right result. 6 right scorelines.
Fifty Fucking Nine percent correct. If I were choosing between 2 options, I'd be making cash hand over fist. Among three options? Are you kidding? If I had balls, I'd be making J.K. Rowling money. Without the whole exploitation of kids who don't know that the plotlines are all rehashed Saved by the Bell episodes on acid. 59%!!!!! Even I didn't realize it was going so well.
And on that note, the inevitable downfall...
Birmingham City v. Charlton Athletic: 1-2. Charlton continue on up the table.
Chelsea v. Sunderland: 4-0. Should be bigger than that. Asswhipping of the year. (and yes, I've considered going against the grain here).
Everton v. Portsmouth: 0-0. I really don't like Everton this year, though Pompey blow. Least confident of this pick.
Manchester United v. Manchester City: 1-2. Yeah, they're going to be pissed. And I laugh.
Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool: 1-0. First instinct pick, but upon reasoned analysis, I'd pick a draw. I do think Liverpool will be bothered more by international commitments over the last couple weeks.
West Bromwich Albion v. Wigan Athletic: 2-0. And nothing to add.
Newcastle United v. Fulham: 3-0. I'm not really crazy... I'd guess they blow up here and then go scoreless for the next 5 matches. Reason? Fulham suck and a big win here would make the Toon Army even sillier, if only for a few days.
Middlesbrough v. Arsenal: 0-2. Not my first instinct, but then I remembered that I don't think Boro're any good.
Bolton Wanderers v. Blackburn Rovers: 1-0. I think this will be an ugly game. Will the rumors about Big Sam bother them?
West Ham United v. Aston Villa: 1-0. West Ham aren't as bad as I thought. I do think Villa will go on a decent run this year sometime, though.
Thursday, September 08, 2005
The Chapter in which our hero, LD, pretends he's Peter King
Normally, I'd give these hard pipe-hittin opinions for free, but since Sid-Bream-with-a-better-stache lookalike John Stossel told me that price gouging is good, it'll cost you big time. Give to the link above.
1) Droopy Dog dedicated an entire column to the plight of Mike Morse (guy admits taking steroids after an injury, is punished in the Minors, gets to the bigs and tests positive for alleged residue left over from 3 years ago). I think it sucks for this guy to get punished twice, and I also wonder why he couldn't find a doctor to prescribe something for the injury (story doesn't pass the BS test). However, the policy as is is meant to deter people from using steroids as a performance enhancer, as in to get people to the big leagues. Why shouldn't they punish people whose use helped them do exactly that? It's harsh, but it should be.
2) Lance Armstrong's possible return to Le Tour de France? You can't return a jacket for spite, but perhaps a yellow jersey.
3) A Scoop Jackson article about the WNBA? I tried to come up with a joke of something else I'd never want to read, but the article itself is the best punchline I could come up with.
4) Kick ass, Robby Ginepri. But Wheeler still sucks. Cocaine Bref and I pissed on you, bitch.
5) Watching the Pats/Raiders game tonight after a hard weekend of college football last weekend, I'm reminded that I need to recreate a separate compartment for watching the Pro game. I tend to take a more analytical (go ahead and laugh, motherfucker) approach to the NFL than college football. Here's why it's so different: coverage is way too serious, fans are way too serious, everything about it is way too serious. Even the entertaining things, like Randy Moss mooning and Joe Horn making a cell phone call, are all about commercializing the players. It's altogether boring, but also good football. So I just have to watch it more dispassionately. That said, the ABC coverage sucks. It's like they took the worst parts of Gameday, watered them down for mass consumption, and threw them at us. Tim McGraw is singing the highlights. Tim, you're no Bubba Sparxxxxxxxxx.
6) From Jim Donnan's Weekly Viewer's Guide in re Shitburg State vs. UGA: "However, anything can happen in this game." Like 5 INTs (4 of them on the exact same called play), snuggling with but not benching a QB who is obviously coked up and/or wagering on the game, and losing to a team whose goalposts had to be replaced the week before because of the historic upset of NEW MEXICO MOTHERFUCKING STATE. Yeah, anything can happen. I hate that my donations to the UGA Athletic Association still go to paying this mouthbreather.
7) Meanwhile, a sentient coach knows what to watch for: "Hurl insults, just don't hurl bottles and I'll be fine." Evidently he knows the weapons we bring to the stadium. Luckily, those bottles lose a lot of their mass because we wouldn't dare throw them full.
8) I was also going to write about Bill Simmons using the respect card for the Patriots for the 18 billionth time, but M. Elkon got to it first. With adorable pictures!
9) A few notes on college football blogs. (a) Heisman Pundit sounds like an accountant using tems like "wack" and "phat" when he uses the G at the end of "Straight Banging". And I'm going to add Straight Bangin' to the blogroll when I get around to it, if for no other reason than the Ed Orgeron photo. (b) In re the MGOBlog/Heismanpundit/CFR slapfight today, I see a schism in the football blog world. Some writers want to elevate the game, take the writing seriously (and though I use the plural "writers," has there been any actual proof that HP and Resource Admin are in fact different people, or is it common knowledge and I'm just late to the game?). Others want to have fun with the game and mock the stuffedshirts. It makes me want to make people know that I sit firmly on the latter side, though I'm just not funny enough for anyone to realize it. From here on out I shall make more dick and fart jokes and quote Super Troopers liberally. In fact, I'm going to call this next guy a chickenfucker.
Where our good friend LD shows his rampant bias
A word on the Georgia Bulldogs. I thought for a long time on whether I should write a post on the Dawgs and therefore ruin my reputation as an unbiased arbiter of what's right and wrong. Then I remembered that I don't give a shit about my being unbiased, only others, since the inane and ungrammatical rantings of an idiot have no effect on actual events.
So let me make things clear: no college football team made a better impression last weekend than UGA. And I say this mostly because the only other teams that made a good showing this weekend (Notre Dame, Clemson, GT) I do not consider national title contenders and I think they suck. USC and Texas played nobody. Georgia actually played a good opponent (one I think will end up with 9 or 10 wins) and blew them out. Was Boise overrated? Probably, but I still think they'll end up in the Top 25. Their offense is dangerous - on numerous occasions Zabransky missed wide open receivers - and I think this game is more of a credit to UGA than against Boise. Back on Zabransky - he rarely looked past the initial receiver and threw to him even when covered (which was every time). Yes, Zabransky sucked. But the Georgia defense forced it too. Zabransky wasn't under pressure all that much, believe it or not. I thought the Georgia LBs were spectacular and they definitely duped Zabransky into throwing ill-advised passes.
And this bodes well for the Dawgs. Defensively, I think they've shown they can shut down the passing game, and that's without overly agressively attacking the opposing with the front 4. If they choose to (which I suspect they will this weekend), we could see even more turnovers, something sorely lacking from last year's campaign. Offensively, the Dawgs are incredibly dangerous. The quick strike capabilities they showed last weekend can only get better. And the strength of the offense - the running game - wasn't on display. Opposing defenses will have to pick their poison. Boise brought the linebackers up and gave up several big plays. Cover the receivers and tight ends, and you'll see the Dawgs grunt out 4 or 5 yards at a time, with the occasional 18 yard DJ scamper. I don't see many other teams being able to stop Georgia. This team is dangerous. Mistakes might be the only thing that slows the Dawgs down.
So yes, I'm on the bandwagon. I had a good feeling about this year, thinking the Ewing Theory applies. Compared to last year, when expectations made watching Georgia as fun as [here's where I wanted to say fucking a BYU coed missionary style while wearing 5 condoms, but alas, I am not funny], this year seemed like it could be fun. Of course, after a game like last weekend, the expectations are back and bad. So the inevitable fall from grace will again feel like I've been kicking it with a visegrip attached to my sack [see?].
But not this weekend. Here's what I see for the USC (that's in LA) Carolina (that's in Chapel Hill)Shitburg State game this weekend: Blake Mitchell is benched or is injured before the second quarter. The Georgia D gets to the QB a lot, causing a fumble or two and a jumpball INT or two. Georgia runs the ball really well. Georgia doesn't score quite as quickly, but the game is never in doubt. 35-10. Joe T and Blake Barnes play the 4th quarter again. Shockley plays solidly, but the RBs are the story.
Oh, and Spurrier is gracious afterward. That I have no doubt about. I think Spurrier has an interesting ethos of being nice and sportsmanlike after he loses to even out the dickishness he shows when he wins (which I hate when my team is on the short end, but I like generally). We'll have trouble with him when/if he gets some linemen and a real QB. I also see him talking more shit towards Tennessee than us.
World Cup Update
1) On a positive, I was wrong about the US World Cup Qualifier. I missed the game, so I don't have much to add.
2) "They suck" might be the best post-game comment I've ever heard. One of the things I like about soccer is the way players and teams don't always abide by the law of unthreatening cliches for their post game interviews (see Mourinho, Ferguson, Every single Italian, Eto'o). Why hold back? It's part of the "who gives a shit" attitude . And this is even best when players or managers talk shit after getting lucky or when their team was clearly outplayed (see Domenech).
3) Here's to Ukraine for qualifying. I already see them as a possible giant killer ala Bulgaria in USA '94 with Shevchenko playing the role of Hristo Stoichkov.
4) England, fuck dude. The Island goes apeshit mocking the FIFA rankings when USA passes them (6th vs 7th). Then they lose to the 116th ranked team in the world in front of a largely accommodating crowd. Meanwhile the USA sends an intramural team to a hostile stadium in hot ass Guatemala (ranked 59th) and salvages a draw. Eat a dick, eel eating bitches.
5) I did watch a good portion of the Guatemala game, but I still have very little to add. I guess I'll say I look forward to when Eddie Johnson is full strength. He will be a very good finisher.
Back in the building
I've gone radio silent all week. This is partly due to being hungover, partly due to being busy, and partly due to the feeling that whatever I'd write would be somewhat disrespectful. But now it's time to get back to business. Quickly, now, before I change my mind.
Monday, September 05, 2005
I want a little thang in my yin-yang: Gameday Review
I know what you're thinking... What's the point in doing this on Monday? Well, I've been away, and I haven't been able to post. Normally the recap will go up on Sunday. I state the definitive pronouncements of the pundits and laugh at how off they were. Keep track of all the "one of the best... in all of college football" we'll hear throughout the year. And watch how predictions may shift over the course of the year. As always, these guys are gatekeepers about which games are talked about, and many of the voters who influence the selection of championship contenders rely on this show.
Divided by pundit
Corso:
Most intriguing - ND/Pitt "It don't get any better than this..."
USC will lose, not go to Rose Bowl - "major problems on defense" "they'll miss Norm Chow on road"
If he we're coaching he'd "go to the nearest bakery and get me some cupcakes." Schedule doesn't matter as long as you win.
DJ Shockley will have a great year, lead UGA to the SEC east.
N. Ill. gives Michigan "all they can handle" but Mich wins.
NSFMF: BGSU over Wisconsin (and I like thinking he says "Not so fast, Motherfucker!")
ND: schedule too tough, 1-5 through first 6 at best.
Air Force over Washington.
Leak has troubles before the snap, Josh Portis gets in games.
Miami wins by a TD
NSFMF: NC St. over Va. Tech.
Leinart posing in GQ makes him a pussy on the field ("softens you up"). My vote for best statement of the day.
NSFMF: Clemson over TAMU.
Auburn wins low scoring game.
Miami K kicks 4 FGs in win.
Herbstreit:
Most intriguing - Auburn/Ga. Tech
USC won't lose until the BCS championship game.
Is using the "intersectional" [meaningless] language, and calls on ADs to schedule tougher OOC opponents with the 12th game.
Robert Meachem (Tenn) is one of the best receivers in all of college football.
UGA offense will be completely different.
Drew Tate is one of the best dual threat QBs in all of college football.
"Excited about Penn State's offense"
Ohio State will get a scare against Miami.
Wisconsin wins.
ND is 4-2 in first 6 games, average 30 ppg. Defense better than anticipated.
Miami wins close.
Palko and Quinn "could be 2 of the best pro-style QBs we'll see this year" (maybe not objective, but Herbie has been going to "the best" line a lot so far)
Va Tech wins close.
Texas A&M wins, Clemson quits when down. (My vote for worst statement of the day).
Auburn wins.
Fowler:
USC will be great on offense "no doubt about that."
Road challenges for USC are tough - "all those teams can score".
ACC "gets it" with scheduling (by having tough in-conference games early? He rags on all the cupcake matchups the rest of the weekend. Seems like Fowler thinks football schedules should be determined by the Gameday Production staff meeting based on compelling matchups)
Who is "Joap Ehh"? "Excited about Penn State's offense"
ND "cleaning up" in recruiting.
It's big of Deion to help out Devin Hester. (Whatever that means).
Texas wins dominant.
A lot of geniuses in college football, but Corso is not one.
Alberts:
Wisconsin over BGSU.
Don't expect Leak to have 10 rushing TDs this year.
May:
BGSU will beat Wisconsin.
ND schedule too tough. First 6 games: 1-5 or 0-6. Defense sucks. Logic quandry: ND's defense was utterly terrible last year AND they lost all their starters. As the old joke goes "this food is terrible, and the portions are so small..."
Howard:
Uses "we" and "our" to describe Michigan. Awesome.
Upset may happen with BGSU. He makes the pick.
Spoke with Coach "Myers" at Florida. First hand knowledge!
Holtz:
Fowler says Holtz says "they'll dominate colelge football" and Holtz agrees because they're doing such a great job recruiting.
Miscellaneous:
LaChey (heir to the Chinese Noodle fortune) says Deion "reinvented the playmaker position". Thanks for that excellent EA Sports analysis, now go back to falsettos and nailing a muppetmouthed walking pair of tits. I give Lachey this: he admitted he's biased after doing the piece on Hester. He stated right there everything that's wrong with this show (and polling in general). You can't rely on access to programs for your job, then objectively rate teams without bringing in personal feelings towards those programs. He then picks the Canes, sentimentally.
Ticker and Oral picks (no spreads, Miami/FSU not included, and also, would it kill ESPN not to say on the ticker that a pick is coming up when it clearly isn't?):
Corso: 17-5
Herbstreit: 18-4
My take on the whole thing:
Adding all the new guys doesn't help.
Hebrstreit seems more prone to hyperbole than before.
Three Not So Fasts! Hold it in, dude. Think about baseball or Margaret Thatcher naked on a cold day.
Fowler, "JoePa" is pronounced like "FUPA", not Foop-uhh. I know I'm repeating myself but it really bothered me. Like when he says "uggggahh"instead of "You-Gee-Ehh".
Fowler and Herbstreit both have been getting in subtle digs at Corso all year. I have a weird feeling that they're trying to run him off but are afraid to tell him outright.
And a non-Gameday related punditwatch: Aaron Taylor is an idiot. And he dared to wear a purple tie. General and I thought he might've mixed up his Grape Ape costume with his analyst suit. Then we remembered he doesn't need a costume.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
USA vs. Mexico
I'm pretty worried about a loss, since I have a feeling Mexico want this a little more than we do, and I'm not sure why I say that either. I know a win would be fantastic, but I see a tie. 1-1.
Update: Some other interesting matches...
Slovenia v. Norway: Pretty much for a playoff berth, since I see Italy winning the group. Norway haven't been great since working Slovenia in Oslo. Slovenia have already beaten Italy at home too. I'm going with Slovenia by one, 1-0.
Poland v. Austria: For the English fans, this might be more interesting than the Wales match. Poland wins, setting up a big important match in Manchester in October. 2-1.
Georgia v. Ukraine: Ukraine win and are the first European team to qualify on the field. 0-2.
Romania v. Czech Rep.: Assuming the Dutch get a result in Armenia (which might not be that easy to assume), this is an important game, though the Romanians are running out of games. I like the Czech Republic to get at least a draw and leave the group in doubt until Prague in October against the Dutch. 2-2.
Wales v. England: Back on track. 0-3.
Switzerland v. Israel: Both these teams need wins, because this group is about to get very tight with the French playing the Faeroes. It's been a nice run for Israel, but I see the Swiss getting a win here. 2-1.
Australia v. Solomon Islands: Look for a big number from the Socceroos. They'll shit the bed against Chile or someone else, but not here. 5-0.
Uzbekistan v. Bahrain: For the right to play Costa Rica or Guatemala. I look for low scoring in this match. 0-0. Bahrain will advance after the return.
Zambia v. Senegal: Surprised that Senegal hasn't distanced themselves in this group. Both need a win to have a shot at climbing over Togo. Go with the home team. 1-0.
Paraguay v. Argentina: This is interesting because Argentina is in, and Paraguay is currently sitting in 4th (last team in). It looks like Argentina might be leaving some of their European based players with their clubs. Paraguay is typically tough at home too. I'm not happy about this match if I'm Colombia (in 5th). I'll go with Paraguay. 1-0.
And quickly, I like Guatemala and Costa Rica to both get wins on the road (I know, probably foolish), separating them from Panama and T&T. I say this because I think this is the matchday where the standings appear tighter than they really are and the American columnists start overreacting.
Katrina Relief
I have trouble putting into words how I feel about the losses experienced by hundreds of thousands of residents in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. My blog is pretty much all about meaningless bullshit, and when something of this gravity happens, I feel guilty for writing what I write. I'm going to give what I can. I encourage you to do the same.
Donate now.
The Harris Poll - Revisited
The series so far:
Intro
Voters
Analysis
A few other points that I've been mulling over or were raised in comments:
I. Replacement Voters
Yesterday 6 voters were added to the poll to replace the ESPN conflicted voters. They are:
Bob Pruett: Marshall HC and player. Asst. Coach at Florida, Mississippi, Tulane, Wake Forest.
Ray Goff: Georgia HC, assistant and player.
Jim Mandich: Michigan player.
Joe Jacoby: Louisville player.
Denny Aldridge: Texas player. USA Today article says he was an assistant coach, but I can't find anything.
Frank Sadler: South Carolina assistant. Kentucky player? High school coach.
I don't think this changes all that much from my earlier analysis. It adds another lifetimer, though I'm not so sure Ray Goff is as die hard a Dawg as some of the others (somewhat bad terms). Pruett has weak ties to Florida, so it costs me the good line about the big Florida schools, but the undercurrent remains - Florida is still underrepresented. Most of the new guys have ties to the South.
II. The Feminine Mystique
A few columnists and others have brought up the readily apparent fact that there are no women to serve as voters for the Harris Poll. While I tried in this series to focus on the facts, this issue kind of forces me to have an opinion. I don't think the failure to include women is necessarily a flaw in the voting process. I think of it as more of a public relations problem for the poll, and something that gives columnists have an easy column to write. My opinion has nothing to do with whether women should be voters, or whether they are able to be a good voter.
The point is that the flaw with the poll is inherent biases - relationships to schools, employment, geography. All voters have this, no matter the race, gender, etc. A woman is no less likely to have these flaws than a man. Now, if all women were to have a particular bias - as in toward a single school - then the lack of women might make the poll even worse. But the fact of the matter is that women don't have universal biases when it comes to college football. If the poll were only made up of women, and those women were to have the same connections that the current voters have, the poll would be just as screwed up. So in terms of the validity of the poll, and not whether it's right or wrong to include women, the gender makeup of the poll doesn't really matter.
III. Solutions
One of the problems I have with my own analysis is that I don't offer any solutions. I purposefully avoided saying "the poll sucks, the system sucks, let's have a playoff" because I don't really think that way. I think the system in place now isn't good, but it's all we've got. The goal should be to get the least biased voters who actually watch the most games and know enough about the teams in order to have an informed opinion. Coaches obviously are biased, since they have their own interests to deal with, and they have something else to do on Saturdays rather than actually watch the games. The Harris Poll voters are almost all biased, and who knows how many of them will take the job seriously. I don't even think the AP voters are all that much better, since a good percentage of them are covering a particular team's beat and therefore aren't watching several games. Unless we breed a species of precogs that only watch college football 24 hours a day, polling is a pretty bad way to crown a champion. But it's the way we have. And I don't like pointing out flaws without offering alternatives (although I do it all the damn time).
So here's my alternative: The Gunslinger Poll. I tracked this last year, and it didn't end up much different from the actual polls, but it does have the potential to do so. Here's how it works. Every team at the beginning of the year looks at their schedule and sees 11 or 12 games it has to win in order to have a chance at being considered Champions. Nobody knows how good every team on the schedule is at the onset. Nobody knows anything. But every team knows they have to win every game. Now, once the season goes along, we can see which teams face tougher schedules compared to others. So the system is this: Rank teams first by won-loss record. More wins a team has, the higher ranked it is. An 8-0 team is ranked ahead of a 7-0 team. The more losses a team has, the lower ranked it is. Among teams with the same exact record, strength of schedule is the tiebreaker, with one exception. Among two teams with the exact same record who have played each other, and where the team with the worse strength of schedule has beaten the team with the tougher strength of schedule, the team with the weaker SOS will be ranked immediately ahead of the stronger SOS. In the event of three teams which have the same exact record and have played each other, with each team winning one and losing one, the SOS will control. Schedules are set years in advance, and the kids competing on the field have nothing to do with scheduling, so I think won-loss record should be the first and foremost category. Does this lead to some odd results? Yes. It may favor easy schedulers, but we'll see. I'll give the Top 10 of the poll each week, but not until decent SOS ratings come out, probably in mid-October.
That's my alternative, and I know it's not one everyone will support. But hey, it's what I've got. At a minimum, it takes bias out of the equation, which the BCS system can't say.
Again, thanks for all the links and visits. Feel free to leave comments. I've got a thick skin, so tell me if I'm an idiot.
Flick the Button
Man, it's been forever. I hope I remember all the movies I've watched.
Good Bye Lenin!: Nice enough. Not quite as moving as I was expecting, but still pretty good. It definitely brought a different perspective to the fall of the Berlin Wall, one not known over here. Unfortunately, I think I had too high expectations and I saw it in a bad mood. Steak knives.
Miracle: Kurt Russell is pretty good, but everyone else in this was out of his league. Plus, anyone who has seen the actual games or the SportsCentury-ish specials on it will be kind of bored. I was. Fine for 9 year olds. You're fired.
The Terminal: Unsure what this movie was supposed to be. Not romantic enough to be that, not funny enough to be comedy, not dry enough to be satire. Just kind of plays to the middle. Not good. Hanks fails too - I didn't for one second believe his character. Fired.
The Grudge: If I were more interested, I'd say I need to watch this again, because I didn't really understand what was going on. But I was bored too. And I wasn't that scared. I guess it was weird, but that's not enough. Fired.
Monday, August 29, 2005
The Gelhead Awards and Welcome to the Party
I haven't been able to track visits to the Corporate HQ until recently, but I have a pretty good feeling that today was my biggest day so far. Thanks to all the visitors and feel free to have a look around.
I haven't been writing all that much about college football until lately because I'm not that big into recruiting and the season is just now starting. I guess I wrote a lot more about soccer and baseball and movies and stupid people and stuff. I'll probably mix all that in a bit more. My philosophy toward sports blogging is more along the lines of media criticism than game analysis or predictive abilities (I save that for soccer). Or jokes and shit.
So again, welcome. And if you're bored with these posts, go back and read my NFL Draft Diary. I call Mark May an IUD in it. And that still makes me laugh.
Also today we have Kirk Herbstreit's Herbie Awards, brought to you by the good folks at the Big 10 conference and Maxim Haircare products for men. Nothing too groundbreaking here, or at least nothing you can't get a billion other places. A few odds and ends...
Starting from the bottom:
The steakhouse in Atlanta he mentions is The Palm (and I could've sworn it was a chain or at least based on a restaurant elsewhere), not the Palms, which I believe is where Trishelle banged half of Vegas.
Best Game Day Coach nominee Mack Brown? I guess Herbstreit is giving credit for "consoling depressed players after yet another big game." Or maybe Herbstreit just thinks the game is in early February.
Best Uniforms and Best looking dudes in uniform... yeah he does this every year. Gotta give something for the honeys he plans on mowing on campus... Seriously though, if he ain't gay, I'm clever and funny. Any real man would say the "best" in uniform would be the fattest kickers and nobody else.
Best Student Section: Michigan? I've never been there, but I've always heard that it's strangely quiet for 110,000. Utah? You can't get beer over 3.4%. There's probably more liquor in section 308 in Sanford Stadium than in the entire state of Utah. LSU students bring their own arsenal - and that's just for the National Anthem. Auburn students can power windmill farms with those gay-ass pom-poms. And Georgia, well if we ain't loud it's because we're either passed out or hammering some hot as hell skirt. I mean Utah?
And finally a homer note. How do you name 9 tight ends without mentioning Leonard Pope?
Sunday, August 28, 2005
That's a bold statement - College Gameday Recap
College Gameday's preview special yesterday. Hyperbole and definitive statements abound. Remember that poll voters rely on these mouths to shape their votes. These statements set the table for how football is perceived. Here're a few choice selections. Definitive, uncategorical statements only (no "If so and so happens..."). By pundit:
Corso:
USC won't win the national title because of D and departing offensive coaches.
Paterno and Bowden will coach as long as physically able (not retire this year).
Paterno has done more than any coach ever ever ever.
Bowden will coach longer than Paterno.
Oklahoma doesn't win the Big 12, national title.
Texas wins the Big 12 because Mack Brown's been around a long time.
NSFMF: Forget ND opening 2-3, might be 0-6. During this monologue Corso looked pissed at interruptions, drawing hearty laughter at the Douchebag estates.
Spurrier won't win an SEC title or BCS game at USC.
Vince Young wins the Heisman.
Eric Crouch was the worst passer (trails off, drooling...)
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Pitt
ACC: Miami over FSU twice
SEC: LSU over UGA
Big 10: Ohio State because they're going to Columbus in 2 weeks.
Pac-10: USC but doesn't win the national title
BCS Title: Ohio State vs. LSU. Ohio State wins.
Herbstreit:
[He's pretty good at framing things to avoid predictions, generally. Or at least better than the others.]
Frosh to watch: DeShawn Jackson (Cal), Jamal Charles (Tex.)
Chris Leak "not a great runner" but will have a great year if healthy (watch Josh Portis if Leak hurt)
Texas A&M wins the Big 12 South.
ND will win eventually, but not this year barring a miracle.
Jimmy Clausen wants to play for Spurrier (interesting comment, sort of out of place).
Leinart, Bush Vince Young/Ted Ginn winner, Reggie McNeal, Chris Leak, Marcus Vick are Heisman potentials. Leinart wins it. Reggie Bush is the best player on the team. Leinart is the Most Valuable Player.
Big 12: Texas A&M
Big East: Louisville
ACC: Va Tech
SEC: LSU wins over Florida (Alabama a sleeper)
Big 10: Ohio State
Pac-10: Matt Leinart wins it (Oregon 2nd)
BCS Title: Ohio State v. USC, Ohio State wins.
Multiple undefeated teams - Louisville is this year's Auburn.
Alberts:
USC wasn't "exactly dominating" last year.
Frosh to watch: Jonathan Stewart (Oregon)
Derrick Johnson was the best LB of the alst 10 years.
Ohio State beats Texas by 17 (then he qualifies it later... by adding a "what if", initially he said "what's going to happen after [that] happens")
South Carolina is a sleeping giant and they'll be in a BCS bowl within 3 years. (whoa)
Heisman: Off the chart types - Marshawn Lynch, Gerald Riggs. Reggie Bush wins it. John David Booty could step right in at USC without missing a beat.
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Louisville (not even close)
ACC: Va Tech
SEC: LSU over UGA
Big 10: Michigan
Pac-10: Pete Carroll wins it (I think he said Washington St. 2nd)
BCS Title: USC v. Va. Tech. Va. Tech wins.
May:
Hardcore USC bandwagon. USC will "get better this year".
Only team that can beat USC is USC.
Bowling Green a BCS buster, will beat Wisconsin.
Texas will win the Big 12.
No big bowl for So. Carolina this year, but next 3-4 years.
Voting for Reggie Bush for the Heisman
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Pitt
ACC: Miami
SEC: LSU
Big 10: Purdue
Pac-10: Reggie Bush wins it.
BCS Title: USC v. Texas. USC wins
Fowler:
USC faces a lot of roadblocks (road games in conference).
Va Tech faces a "hostile opener" at NC State.
Adrian Peterson has a great chance at the Heisman.
SEC stronger than Big 10.
Other nuggets of wisdom:
Bob Stoops: "They didn't give us that opportunity to play for the national championship. That was earned." Millions of Auburn fans just flooded their outhouses with vomit. Stoops has quickly moved to the front of my annoying media whore list for college football.
I thought TiVo had accidentally changed to MTV2 during one commercial break because it sure looked like the "Diary" of Tony Yayo. Confusing. I hope I don't go back to slingin' yayo [to get my mayo]
Alberts (shockingly) raises an interesting point, though he doesn't take it to the next logical progression. What if Purdue and Ohio State (which don't play each other) both go undefeated? Could we see a mythical Big 10 title game at the Rose Bowl? 'Cause that would be boring as hell.
Big & Rich and Cowboy Troy are performing before the UCF/USC game Thursday. Once again, thanks, ESPN, for reminding me why I hate everything.
They all laughed at the Harris Poll. See below.
So I'll try to keep up on the GasBagBrigade's shifting predictions and posturing all year. And remember that these guys actually have an influence on the games themselves by virtue of the fact that they are serious gatekeepers of what teams get talked about and plenty of voters rely on them. Hold them accountable.
The Harris Poll - Introduction
The last few days I've been looking at the new Harris Poll component of the BCS. The Harris Poll is basically replacing the AP Poll in the BCS computations. The results of this poll, added to the Coaches' Poll, make up the the most important portion of the BCS. Basically this poll alone can make an enormous difference in where a team finishes, in whether a team has a chance to play for the BCS Championship, in what bowl a team goes to, in how much money a program can earn, etc. That is why it's important.
It's also flawed. All humans have biases. It's part of nature. And if we're going to base the system on polls, it's a risk we have to accept (whether the system is right or not is a different issue all together and I'm not bringing it up now). Assuming that this is the system in place now and for the extended future, the goal should be to limit the risk of bias in the poll. The Harris Poll fails miserably at limiting the biases of its pollsters. It seems as if some of the pollsters were selected because of their biases.
There are 114 voters, but 5 have withdrawn (4 because they work for ESPN, which intelligently wants no part of this mess, and 1 because he's the son-in-law of the head coach at Troy and even these idiots saw that as a conflict).
So here's how I'm going to present my findings. First, a list of the voters and their evident conflicts. Then, I'll categorize the conflicts by schools and conferences and provide some analysis and findings resulting from my research. If it works, you'll see pretty clearly that this poll is a joke and an embarassment. One tease: Noted powerhouse Kansas has 4 pollsters with a conflict. Florida and Florida State (as well as many others) have none.
The Harris Poll - The Voters
The conflict the voter is best known for is listed first. I performed searches via Google and tried as best as I could, but I realize that this list may have missed something. If something appears current, I'll try to note it as such, but everything else is the voter's former position. If I've incorrectly listed something, please let me know in comments and I'll delete it as soon as possible. This isn't my job, so I don't have the time to phone everyone on this list. Also, I know that lots of these guys have done things I haven't listed, like Terry Bradshaw's 10-10-220 commercials. Since that stuff isn't a direct conflict with one of the schools the poll is monitoring, it doesn't matter. If I've missed something that's a conflict (player, covered, or worked for), let me know in comments and I'll add it.
Bobby Aillet: Louisiana Tech player. Possibly an SEC referee (more likely his son). Stadium at La Tech named for his father.
Bill Battle: HC at Tennessee. Asst. Coach at Army. Assistant and player at Oklahoma. CEO of Collegiate Licensing - has contracts with 180 colleges.
Gene Bartow: AD at UAB. Basketball coach at Memphis, Illinois, and UCLA.
Dick Bestwick: HC at UVA. Asst. at GT. AD at South Carolina. Assoc. AD at UGA, Missouri. Player at UNC.
Joe Biddle: Current columnist for the Tennessean in Nashville.
Blaine Bishop: Ball State player.
Kim Bokamper: San Jose State player. Sportscaster in Miami now.
Terry Bradshaw: Louisiana Tech player.
Wilt Browning: Sportswriter in Greensboro, NC now, Atlanta, Greenville and Charlotte before.
Earle Bruce: HC at Ohio State, Iowa State, Colorado State.
Brentson Buckner: Clemson player.
Bob Casciola: HC at UConn. Broadcaster for predecessor to Big East.
Charlie Cavagnaro: AD at UNLV and Memphis. Basketball focus.
Jake Crouthamel: AD at Syracuse.
Eddie Crowder: HC and AD at Colorado. Oklahoma player.
Peter Dalis: AD at UCLA.
Charles Davis: Player at Tennessee. Announcer for Pac-10/Big XII.
Pete Dawkins: Player at Army.
Bill Dooley: HC at UNC, Va. Tech, Wake Forest.
Boots Donnelly: AD & HC at Middle Tenn. State. Asst. Coach at Vandy.
Kevin Duhe: Player at NE Louisiana (Louisiana-Monroe).
Spike Dykes: HC at Texas Tech. Player at Rice. Asst. Coach at Texas, New Mexico, Miss St.
Bert Emanuel: Player at Rice.
Bump Elliott: HC and Player at Michigan. Assistant Coach at Iowa and Oregon State.
Boomer Esiason: Player at Maryland.
Don Fambrough: HC and Player at Kansas.
Foge Fazio: HC at Pitt. Assistant at Cincinnati.
Bob Frederick: AD at Kansas. Basketball player at Kansas. On faculty at Kansas.
Andy Geiger: AD at Ohio State, Assoc. AD at Syracuse, Stanford, Maryland.
David Glazier: no conflicts known (Detroit Lions and Tigers, Baldwin Wallace College).
Jim Grabowski: Player at Illinois. Commentator for Illinois radio.
Mike Grace: No conflicts known (runs College Football Radio network, which appears to be in Alabama).
Bob Grim: Player at Oregon State. Radio analyst for Oregon State.
Pat Haden: Player at Southern Cal. Broadcaster for NBC (Notre Dame).
Bob Hammel: Retired sportswriter in Bloomington, Indiana. Attended Indiana University.
Dick Harmon: Current Sportswriter in Salt Lake City (Deseret News), covers Utah and BYU.
Tommy Hicks: Current Sportswriter in Mobile.
Clarkston Hines: Player at Duke.
EJ Holub: Player at Texas Tech. Weight room named after him. Works in development for Texas Tech.
David Housel: AD at Auburn. Student and longtime facultymember at Auburn.
Raghib Ismail: Player at Notre Dame.
Fred Jacoby: MAC commissioner, SWC commissioner, Assistant at Wisconsin. Student at Ohio State and Wisconsin.
Charley Johnson: Player and current faculty member at New Mexico State. Only retired number in school history. Assistant to President for Athletic Progress as of Aug. 2004.
Blair Kerkhoff: Current Kansas City Star columnist covering Kansas, Kansas State and the Big XII.
Mike Kern: Current Philadelphia Daily News writer covering Temple and others.
Roy Kramer: SEC Commissioner. AD at Vandy. Coach at Central Michigan. Degree from Michigan.
Larry Lacewell: Longtime Arkansas State HC and AD. Player at Oklahoma. Assistant at Oklahoma , Alabama, Iowa State. Locker room at ASU named for him.
Dave Lapham: Syracuse player.
George Lapides: Radio personality in Memphis. Links to Memphis, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi and Miss. State on his website.
Steve Largent: Tulsa player.
Robert Lawless: University President at Tulsa and Texas Tech. On faculty at Houston and Texas A&M.
Jack Lengyel: AD at Navy, Fresno State & Missouri. Interim AD at Colorado, Temple. Assoc. AD at Louisville. Coach at Marshall.
Jim Lessig: MAC and Sun Belt commissioner. AD at Kansas and Bowling Green. Assistant Coach at Minnesota.
Ferd Lewis: Current sportswriter for Honolulu Advertiser. Covers Hawaii. Fresno State grad.
Ted Lewis: Current sportswriter for New Orleans Times Picayune. Covers Tulane, LSU.
Mike Lucas: Current sportswriter for Capital Times in Madison, WI. Covers Wisconsin and Big Ten.
Mike Lude: Colorado State coach. AD at Kent, Washington and Auburn.
Tom Luicci: Current sportswriter for Newark Star Ledger. Covers Rutgers.
John Mackovic: HC at Arizona, Texas, Illinois, Wake Forest.
Don Maynard: UTEP player.
Don McCauley: UNC player.
Joe McConnell: Current Purdue play-by-play announcer. Assistant SID at Purdue. Play-by-play for Northwestern, Notre Dame, Illinois.
Mike McGee: South Carolina, Southern Cal, Cincinnati AD. HC at Duke and East Carolina, assistant at Wisconsin, Minnesota. Player at Duke.
Lance McIlhenny: SMU player.
Ray Melick: Current sportswriter for Birmingham Post-Herald, MSNBC. Radio personality in Birmingham. Covers Alabama, Auburn. See his "favorite" and "Hated" teams.
Ted Miller: Current sportswriter for Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Covers Washington and Pac-10. Darrell Moody: Coach at NC State, UNC, Clemson, LSU, Southern Miss, Tulane. Player at NC State.
Jim Morse: Player at Notre Dame. Radio personality for ND. "Major benefactor"
Craig Morton: Player at California.
Jack Moss: Sportswriter at Kalamazoo Gazette. Western Michigan alum and covers WMU.
Anthony Munoz: Player at USC. Camera magnet last 4 years at Tennessee.
Chuck Neinas: Big 8 commissioner. Heads Coach/AD Search consulting firm with dozens of clients (ND, TX, Okla, UGA, A&M, et al).
Tim Neverett: Play-by-play for UNLV. Broadcasting personality in Denver area.
Dave Newhouse: Current writer for Oakland Tribune. San Jose St. grad.
George Perles: Michigan State HC
Ed Podolak: Iowa player.
John Pont: HC at Indiana, Northwestern, Miami. AD at Northwestern.
Steve Preece: Oregon State player. TV announcer for Oregon State.
Homer Rice: AD at GT, Rice, UNC. Coach at Kentucky, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Rice.
Pat Richter: AD at Wisconsin. Player at Wisconsin.
Paul Roach: Wyoming HC and AD.
Kenny Roda: Cleveland radio personality. Website links to Ohio State (NSFW in places).
Harvey Schiller: SEC commisioner.
Terry R. Schmidt: Ball State player.
Dick Schultz: UVA AD, Iowa coach.
Ken Shipp: Middle Tennessee St. player.
Irwin Smallwood: Current sportswriter (mostly golf) in Greensboro, NC. UNC grad. Daily Tar Heel publishes columns.
Jim Ray Smith: Baylor player. President of Baylor letterman club.
Larry Smith: HC at USC, Missouri, Tulane, Arizona. Asst. Coach at Miami OH, Michigan. Bowling Green player.
Gary Spani: Kansas State player.
Lou St. Amant: Radio announcer, and Assistant coach at Louisiana Monroe. Current President of "L Club". Baseball coach at ULM.
Ron Stephenson: Assistant AD at Boise State.
Nelson Stokley: Louisiana-Lafayette HC and AD. LSU player.
Jim Sweeney: HC at Fresno State (Field named for him) and Washington State. Current fundraiser for Fresno St.
Rick Taylor: AD at Cincinnati, Northwestern.
Whit Taylor: Vanderbilt player.
Jack Thompson: Washington St. player. Father of current player at WSU. Number retired by WSU (1 of only 2). Has awesome nickname - The "Throwin' Samoan".
John Toner: UConn HC and AD.
Steve Townsend: LSU SID. Assoc. AD at Alabama. Author of 2 books on Alabama.
Glen Tuckett: BYU AD and Baseball coach. Alabama AD.
Max Urick: AD at Kansas State and Iowa State.
Roger Valdiserri: Notre Dame SID for several decades. Assoc. AD at ND.
Bob Wagner: HC at Hawaii. Assistant Coach at Arizona.
Frank Weedon: Assoc. AD, SID at NC State. Maryland grad. Current NC State consultant.
Frank Windegger: TCU AD (and baseball player and coach).
Bill Yeoman: HC at Houston for 25 years.
Hugh Yoshida: AD at Hawaii.
The Harris Poll - Analysis & Conclusion
First off, some caveats about conflicts: I recognize that there is no way to accurately display direct connection between the conflict list in the previous post and actual biases. Some conflicts are much closer than others. For example, Bill Yeoman coached for 25 years at Houston and is still a legend there, while Larry Smith has 6 conflict schools and didn't leave with a good relationship at several of them. A long career at the same school may mean a bias toward that school, but also a bias against that school's rivals. An administrator that has worked at 6 schools may have dozens of biases toward and against schools. It's easy to say that since there are countless biases inherent to every voter, "they all cancel each other out", but I don't think the evidence supports that. Also, whether a conflict is in favor (Jack Thompson at WSU) of or against (Mackovic at Arizona) a particular school equally brings the poll into question.
I. Conference Categorization
For this section, I'm considering all conflicts equal (though I recognize that some are stronger than others and that the positive/negative dynamic exists). Also, if a particular voter has more than one conflict in the same conference (Dick Bestwick in the ACC - GT, UNC, UVA) , that voter only counts once for the conference.
SEC: 25 conflicts
Big XII: 22 conflicts
Big Ten: 20 conflicts
ACC: 17 conflicts
Pac-10: 17 conflicts
Conference USA: 14 conflicts
Big East: 12 conflicts
WAC: 11 conflicts
Independents: 10 conflicts
MAC: 9 conflicts
MWC: 9 conflicts
Sun Belt: 7 conflicts
Analysis: It is what it is. Some conferences are probably overrepresented (Independents, SEC, Conference USA). Some are probably underrepresented (ACC, Big East, MWC).
II. School Categorization
Same caveats - any conflict counts, though some are bigger than others. Categorized by number of conflicts.
6: UNC
5: Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
4: Auburn, Cincinnati, Kansas, LSU, Ohio State, Southern Cal, Tennessee, Wisconsin
3: Arizona, Fresno State, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Missouri, NC State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Rice, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Tulane, Vanderbilt
2: Army, Ball State, BYU, California, Clemson, Colorado, Colorado State, Duke, Ga. Tech, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee State, Mississippi State, San Jose State, Stanford, Temple, Texas, Tulsa, UCLA, UConn, UNLV, Utah, Virginia, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State
1: Arkansas, Arkansas State, Baylor, Boise State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, East Carolina, Georgia, Kent, Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisville, Marshall, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Navy, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Pitt, Purdue, Rutgers, SMU, Southern Miss, South Florida, Texas A&M, TCU, UAB, UTEP, Va. Tech, Wyoming
0: Air Force, Akron, Arizona State, Boston College, Buffalo, Central Florida, Eastern Michigan, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida State, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, Northern Illinois, North Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Penn State, San Diego State, Toledo, Troy, Utah State, Western Michigan, West Virginia
Analysis: Several points to make:
- Florida, FSU and Miami all are perennial Top 10 teams, and therefore are most likely to be involved with a BCS controversy than just about any othe trio of teams. Yet there is only one voter with even a nominal connection to any of these schools (Bokamper). Florida is the most poorly represented state in this poll. And this is inexcusable. Unless the rules have changed, the ACC relies on the BCS rankings in part to decide which teams go to which bowls. If I were a FSU or Miami fan, I'd be very upset.
_ - Some schools are significantly better represented than in-state rivals. Example: Arizona vs. Arizona State, Oregon vs. Oregon State.
_ - Two of the three main Northeastern programs have no representation at all - Penn State and Boston College. It isn't like there aren't any writers in the Northeast.
_ - Nebraska, Florida State, Penn State, Florida: all traditionally impressive programs, all involved in National Title chases in the last 20 years. Combined: No voters tied to the programs. I'd even add West Virginia in here.
_ - UNC, Kansas, Cincinnati: among the schools with the most conflicted voters. Is the Harris Poll going to be used for basketball as well?
_ - If the state of Florida is underrepresented, the state of Louisiana is clearly overrepresented. 12 conflicts among 5 schools. And they said the Ice Cream Distributor guy from ULM was needed for geographical inclusion? I call BS. This ought to make USC fans still sore about LSU's 2003 BCS Championship pretty mad.
_ - Several successful mid-major programs are underrepresented. Mid-majors may have more to gain/lose by BCS poll bias. Boise State, Bowling Green, Southern Miss, TCU, UAB, UTEP, Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Marshall all have one or fewer related voters. Watch one (or more) get screwed.
Just at this level, there are plenty of questions which should be raised and answered by the Harris Poll. And these problems, to me, bring the entire poll into disrepute.
III. Age Distribution
In a previous post I discussed how a slight slant of this poll toward older voters could throw off the entire thing. I view older voters as "pre-Baby Boomers". My take is that there is a generational gap in college football. The younger generation thinks that the Florida schools are the standard bearers, that Boise State and Fresno State can hang with anyone, that Louisville, Virginia Tech and Kansas State are traditional powers not bottom feeders. The older generation still thinks that Notre Dame and Penn State are dominant (or even relevant), that Alabama is the only team south of Ohio, that Boise State is a punchline not a threat. Yes, I know this is stereotypical. Yes, I know that individual voters are able to do the research which should be required no matter how old he is. But this slant is a potential pitfall for the poll, in my opinion.
Finding voters' birth dates online isn't exactly easy, so my data isn't as accurate as I'd like. However, at least 45 voters (out of 109) can be considered in that pre-baby-boom generation. Nearly half. I see this as a problem.
Some other interesting facts about some of the voters' ages:
- Eddie Crowder retired from Colorado as AD nearly 20 years ago. Retired as coach 31 years ago.
_ - Bump Elliott coached his last game 37 years ago.
_ - Bob Hammel published his last column 9 years ago. (Might not seem so long, but writing isn't exactly as physically taxing - imagine Furman Bisher + a decade)
_ - Fred Jacoby has "53 years experience" in administration.
_ - Mike Lude last coached in the 60's and his bio uses the Kent State shootings as a frame of reference.
_ - Ken Shipp's coaching highlight was 30 years ago.
_ - Homer Rice started his career in coaching or administration 54 years ago.
_ - Bill Yeoman retired 19 years ago, but started coaching 43 years ago.
_
IV. Other Sports
Several of the voters were not football players or coaches, but rather were primarily involved in other sports. I don't think football experience necessarily must be a requirement, but it's worth looking at.
- Gene Bartow, basketball
- Charlie Cavagnaro, basketball
- Bob Frederick, basketball
- Irwin Smallwood, primarily golf
- Lou St. Amant, baseball coach
- Frank Windegger, baseball
V. The Problem of "Lifetimers"
In the above categorizing there is a clear flaw in my reasoning, which I readily admit. Specifically, an individual may have a tie to 8 different schools because of a career that has had him bouncing around. While all that moving around affects the categorization, it also tends to dilute an individual's loyalties. For example, Dick Bestwick worked or played for UGA, GT, UVA, USC, UNC, and Missouri. It's hard to be a Bulldog homer when you also worked for two close rivals. On the other hand, there are several voters who spent their entire (or nearly all) career at one school, and naturally would have much more loyalty to overcome in order to vote without a bias intruding. While that might not show up in the categorization above, it is indeed a problem. Unfortunately, these individuals must be addressed individually.
- Jake Crouthamel (Syracuse). 27 years as AD. Built nearly every facility on campus.
_ - Peter Dalis (UCLA). Student, nearly 50 years at UCLA.
_ - Don Fambrough and Bob Frederick (Kansas). Fambrough was coach twice, spent nearly 40 years at Kansas and has "the deepest and strongest ties to KU football." Frederick has 3 degrees from KU, worked a total of 23 years at KU and is currently on the faculty (pdf).
_ - Jim Grabowski (Illinois). One of the most beloved players in Illinois history, member of several halls of fame, commentator for 26 years for Illini football.
_ - Bob Grim and Steve Preece (Oregon State). Grim was a player for the Beavers and worked as an OSU football broadcast commentator for 15 years. Preece also was a player and broadcast the postgame interviews for Oregon State's radio network.
_ - EJ Holub (Texas Tech). One of the most egregious conflicts. Red Raider legend, longtime donor to the program. Current fundraiser for the program (Associate Executive Director for Development).
_ - David Housel (Auburn). 40 years on the Plains.
_ - Rocket Ismail, Jim Morse, Roger Valdiserri (Notre Dame). Let the criticism begin, since Notre Dame has 3 of the closest conflicted voters. Ismail is the best known Irish player over the last 20-30 years. Valdiserri's job for 30+ years was public relations for the Irish. Jim Morse is probably the biggest conflict. "Major benefactor" has the athlete's tutoring building named after his family because of his donations, serves (for 25 years) on the Athletic Alumni Development Council (read - fundraiser), has endowed athletic scholarships and provided "aircraft assistance" to the athletics department (to fly Kevin White around trying to hire coaches?).
_ - Charley Johnson (New Mexico State). Another egregious example. Legendary player at NMSU (the only number ever retired by the school), but also he's served on the faculty at NMSU (head of the Chemical Engineering department) and served as the Assistant to the President of NMSU for Athletic Progress.
_ - Pat Richter (Wisconsin). This one is almost parody. 20+ years with Wisconsin as a student and administrator. Longest serving AD in the Big 10 when he retired. His biography is titled "Always a Badger". Seriously.
_ - Paul Roach (Wyoming). Coach twice, AD. "Loves Wyoming deeply".
_ - Jim Ray Smith (Baylor). Player, President of the Baylor Lettermen's Club.
_ - Lou St. Amant (La.-Monroe). Coach, broadcaster, current president of the L Club (booster).
_ - Jim Sweeney (Fresno State). Longtime coach, field named for him. Current fundraiser for the athletic department. Read this article to see how he'd vote (yes, I know he's kidding, but he kind of proves the point).
_ - Jack Thompson (Washington State). Legendary player (1 of 2 retired numbers). Father of a current WSU player. "...near and dear to my heart for three decades."
_ - Frank Weedon (NC State). 45 years at NC State. Current consultant. Longtime SID and Assoc. AD.
_ - Frank Windegger (TCU). 40 years as AD, baseball coach. Only number retired (baseball).
_ - Bill Yeoman (Houston). 25 years as coach.
_
VI. Conclusion
The biggest problem in my opinion with the poll is voters with personal interests in the results of the poll. The Harris Poll, as part of the BCS directly affects bowl selections, and therefore the amount of revenue a particular school may bring in. Many of these voters are directly involved (at times employed) in fundraising for schools which may benefit from increased revenue resulting from inflated poll positions.
Example: Notre Dame has a singular arrangement with the BCS. If they finish in a particular position in the BCS poll, they are guaranteed a BCS at-large position. Three of the voters have direct ties to the university, one of which is directly involved in fundraising. Is there an incentive to fudge the votes on the poll in favor of a 8-3 Notre Dame to push them into an automatic berth (and $12M+ unshared)? I think so.
Another example: Fresno State runs the table, is on the verge of a top 6 BCS finish, but just outside. Should Jim Sweeney (or any other WAC-related voter) fudge the vote in order to get the Bulldogs into a BCS bowl game (and bring in $12M+ into the conference coffers)? He's a fundraiser, wouldn't this raise funds?
And this problem isn't just limited to the top of the poll, though that's definitely where the most deleterious effects can be felt, economic-wise.
Consider this hypothetical: The ACC has used the BCS standings as a tiebreaker in terms of bowl selection slotting. Assume Boston College, NC State and Georgia Tech all finish 8-3, and tied for 3rd-5th in the conference. All are toward the bottom of the BCS standings. Is it possible that Frank Weedon and Dick Sheridan rate NC State a little bit higher than the others in order to ensure that NC State gets that 3rd place finish and a high profile bid to the Peach Bowl (which pays out a little more), while unrepresented BC gets stuck with an expensive (most schools lose money going there) trip to Boise State. Sound fair? And would an issue like this fly under the radar? Possibly.
The fact is that people have biases. It's natural. I spent 7 years in Athens, and I will never be able to put aside my love for the Dawgs. I can't imagine spending 40+ years at a school, the amount of loyalty that would engender.
Can voters put aside biases? Maybe. I believe people can think rationally and objectively. But when individual voters have external pressures, such as job related benefits and detriments, I think it's much more difficult to be objective.
Where this takes us, I'm not prepared to say. Some will say that this poll is just another reason to go for a playoff. I'm not prepared to go that far. Whether we like it or not, this is the system in place. And that's why the system needs to be scrutinized, to ensure that it's the fairest system in place. I cannot say that the Harris Poll's component provides for a level playing field for all teams. When some schools have multiple ad hoc representatives voting for them, while others have nobody even in the area voting for their interests, a fair system is not evident.
Sportswriters across the country have hinted that the poll is interesting and have done profiles of individual voters (or the "several voters have ties to Local U" story). But I haven't been able to find a comprehensive view of all the voters, and I think that when you look at the big picture, it's a much uglier picture than expected. I'd like to give a credit to the many local writers whose columns inspired me to take a stab at this.
The end result: The Harris Poll is problematic now and deserves criticism before it becomes a major problem when the inevitable BCS controversy rears its head in November.
Finally, I'd like to apologize if there are any errors in the above. This is a hobby for me, and while I've put a lot of time into it, I have other responsibilites too. If you see any errors, please email me or post in comments and I'll make clear corrections.
Saturday, August 27, 2005
Premiership Picks
Midweek: 4/7 right result, 3 right scorelines (Straight cash, homey). Season: 14/25 right result, 4 right scores.
This weekend:
West Bromwich Albion v. Birmingham City: 1-0 I don't want to pick either team, but Cribbins got a "vote of confidence" this week, so I'll go with the Baggies.
Tottenham Hotspur v. Chelsea: 2-2 This should be entertaining. I like Spurs so far. Chelsea looked great midweek.
Aston Villa v. Blackburn Rovers: 2-1 Blackburn concede on the road.
West Ham United v. Bolton Wanderers: 0-1 Both sides have surprised me so far. Bolton still a little better.
Fulham v. Everton: 1-0 Everton hungover from the Villareal match.
Wigan Athletic v. Sunderland: 2-0 Sunderland are pretty much embarrassing now. Wigan shouldn't score, but...
Manchester City v. Portsmouth: 2-0 Pompey has big problems.
Middlesbrough v. Charlton Athletic: 3-1 'Boro is looking pretty good. Scoring more than I thought they would.
Newcastle United v. Manchester United: 0-2 Luque can't save Souness. Gone by Labor Day.
Thursday, August 25, 2005
Working on a big one...
I'll have the definitive Harris Poll deconstruction this weekend. I'm about halfway through researching the list of voters. It's as bad as everyone is saying. Some of the biases are barely veiled. The age thing I wrote about yesterday is as bad as I'd suspected. There are a few voters who have left the game in shame, and some who were never in it at all. It's an embarassment. Sit on the edge of your seats.
Champions' League Preview
Group draw happened today. The big story is Liverpool and Chelsea in the same group. Let's go group by group.
Group A: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Brugge, Rapid Vienna
Tough at the top. Both Munich and Juventus could win the whole thing. Those two ought to go through, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some upsets early on.
Group B: Arsenal, Ajax, Sparta Prague, Thun
Probably the weakest group. Arsenal and Ajax are tops, but look out for Prague before the winter transfer period. I don't think any of these teams are a real threat to win the cup, but a run to the semis is possible for Arsenal.
Group C: Barcelona, Panathinaikos, Werder Bremen, Udinese
Barcelona has probably the easiest path to the top, as they're head and shoulders better than the other three. There should be a pretty good battle for second though. I'd pick Bremen.
Group D: Manchester United, Villarreal, Lille, Benfica
Man U and last year's UEFA Cup quarterfinals. Manchester should clinch advancement by the 4th match. The others are all about even. I'll pick Lille.
Group E: AC Milan, PSV, Schalke, Fenerbahce
The toughest group, top to bottom. Milan have the most talent and should advance. PSV and Schalke both have talent to advance pretty far. It's always tough to play in Turkey too. I'll pick Shalke 04.
Group F: Real Madrid, Lyon, Olympiakos, Rosenborg
A pretty good group. Real ought to be a semifinalist at worst. We'll see how well Lyon uses their Essien bounty. Rosenborg aren't having a good domestic season, so this'll be their prime objective. I'd pick Lyon.
Group G: Liverpool, Chelsea, Anderlecht, Real Betis
The English clubs should advance. Anything short of the final might leave Chelsea's fans upset. Watch out for Betis, the sneaky "other" Spanish side this year.
Group H: Internazionale, Porto, Rangers, Artmedia Bratislava
Rangers fans are excited with the draw, but I don't think they advance. Inter and Porto are better. Artmedia have already done better than expected. None of these teams have a real chance to win it (and that includes Inter).
If I had to bet now, I'd say Barcelona, Chelsea and Milan are the best picks. A dark horse is Lyon.
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
Sitemeter Added
I added sitemeter [just] today. So if you're a silent lurker reading and mad that I haven't added your blog to my links or some shit like that, you had no right to be mad until now. Now, however, I can track you. If you would like me to give a shoutout to you, email me at the address on the side and perhaps I'll oblige.
Also, to the person looking for "Matt Leinart + shirtless"... Sorry, dude. Try here.
And finally, for the new folks, I've added links that describe the title and handle.
I don't think it's right pickin' on the elderly
But I do it anyway. Bruce Feldman's blog entry (subscriber) at ESPN today focused on the Harris Poll in the BCS and how old some of the voters are:
"I looked at some of those names -- Wow, man, are you kidding me? I thought a lot of these guys were dead," said one head coach.
The more I think about it, the more this seems like a problem. Consider this post at EDSBS, which brings to mind (a) the fallibility of human voters and (b) the interplay between the mores of the day and the opinions of humans. The latter is what concerns me. If there's a age slant to the Harris Poll, there might also be a generational bias... as in the older voters view the game from their generational point of view, not necessarily the most accurate. Without jumping into the deep end of the "Offensive Revolution", I think the game has definitely changed since the '70s.
Proof positive that the game has passed some by: Beano Cook. Yeah, it's no great task fisking Beano. But he, as much as anyone in college football punditry, represents that past generation.
Perhaps these don't really show that Beano is stuck in 1970 (I'm sure there are plenty of examples out there), but here are some nuggets of insanity, inanity and incomprehensibility from today's espn chat with Count Jigglyjowls of the Three Rivers:
Mark (Lexington, KY): I am a huge Louisville fan and was wondering do you think UofL has a good shot at getting into the Rose Bowl if they go undefeated?
Beano Cook: If 60 teams go on probation...
I'm sure when the 5-6 Gamecocks hear from the NCAA they'll gladly give up their spot at #59 to the 11-0, BCS bound conference champs. Let's not overdo the hyperbole here.
Scott (Cleveland, Ohio): Is Randy Walker at Northwestern another of the coaches on the hot seat? Seems that program has risen to be average but now is stuck.
Beano Cook: Tough to be on the hot seat there when you have the toughest academics in the Big Ten and the only private school in the league...
Nothing all that egregious here. Randy Walker shouldn't be on the hot seat. The flaw in the logic is where earlier in the chat Beano (without being asked) listed off a bunch of coaches on the hot seat and included Bobby Johnson at Vandy, a school which has the toughest academics and is the only private school in its league. Their situations might be different (Walker's had more success, but has also had more time, support, and talent), but if Beano's reason works for one...
Charlie Weiss (south bend, in): How will my Irish team fare in my 1st season, will my QB and WR actually produce a passing game and will my defense actually defend the pass this season? Maybe a 8-9 win season? What do you think?
Beano Cook: At least seven wins. In last year's draft, Purdue, Boston College and Pittsburgh had two players drafted, the same as Notre Dame. The Irish lost to all three of those teams at home last season.
I have no idea what this means. Notre Dame lost at home last year to teams it plays on the road this year, without much comparative difference in the returning talent... so shouldn't they lose those games too? So does that mean Beano expects them to lose them and still get to seven (by beating 2 out of Michigan, Tennessee and USC)? Addled mind.
Beano Cook: Strange things happen, and it is unlikely, but that's why they play the games, as one Chris Berman has said in the past. This isn't like an election in Chicago, where you know the result after the first vote.
Chris Berman? Chicago voting? We're off the rails.
Today's chat featured only 4 Note-Trah-Dame questions and 4 Penn State questions. Topical 15 years ago.
Perhaps today's chat isn't a perfect fit for my grand unification theory, that Beano is from another time (or planet) and that voters of his ilk might slant the Harris Poll. But if the first released Harris Poll has Notre Dame, Alabama, Penn State, Army, Navy, University of Chicago and Yale, we'll know that this was a bad idea.
And one other thing about the Harris Poll: where will Brentson Buckner find time to vote considering all the lip balm he has to put on before every game?
Also football related: A couple of new comments to the SEC scheduling post down below. Anyone have an answer to my question from today?
